Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211021
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
621 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will start to build this first day of Summer.
Rain chances increase but not substantially on Thursday ahead of
a very weak cold front. Behind the boundary temperatures will
remain unseasonably warm with little to no drought releif in
sight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
"Dirty Ridge" regime locally as debris cirrus sails southward,
spawned from explosive TSTMs yesterday over eastern Lake Superior.
Satellite data in "Clear IR" channel suggest a break in the cirrus-
stream a little later this morning. We reside in gradient between
warm ridge to west and sharp trough offshore, so a swift north to
south flow aloft prevails this period, marked by passage of variable
middle/high cloudiness, near upper end of ASOS sensing height.

Variable high clouds tonight, though anticipated less coverage
overall, and mainly clear skies are likely to prevail at times
overnight tonight. This coupled with light to calm wind and dewpoint
rises will lead to a few hours of patchy mist and fog early
Wednesday morning between 530-730 am, with low temperatures in the
60s, near 70 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A healthy  piedmont trough to develop by Wednesday. Normally this is
a good indicator for some precipitation somewhere in the Carolinas,
even if they remain to our west. The combination of a mid level
ridge to our west and a low offshore however will bring a column
that is too hot and dry to support any rain chances. A hot afternoon
is certainly on the way with upper 90s away from the water forecast
soundings show that models may be overdone in their depiction of
surface dewpoints based upon how dry the boundary layer is in
forecast soundings; the end result making it difficult this far out
to say whether or not a heat advisory will be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
One of two things appears slated for Thursday: compressional warming
ahead of a moisture-starved cold front leading to the hottest day of
the stretch, or FROPA and a 10 degree cooldown possibly accompanied
by a few showers. Latest superblend seems a nice compromise in
showing a slight tempering of the heat as well as low end chance-
range POPs. This boundary will be stalled to our south all weekend
and take what little moisture it had along with it. There is no big
push of high pressure/CAA and surface winds will waffle between ESE
and ENE for the most part keeping the coast closer to seasonable
norms when compared to the further elevated inland counterparts.
Sadly there appears little to no drought releif in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. Variable middle, but mostly high clouds this TAF cycle.
Light winds becoming ESE-SE in afternoon 6-11 knots, highest by
the coast. Patchy 5sm br possible at end of TAF period, wind
light SE to calm aft 1z.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the extended period except for a
periodic MVFR from showers associated with the passage of a
weak cold front or sfc trough Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Favorable marine conditions as winds remain
light today and tonight with high pressure in the region. Seas 2
feet or less this period in a mix of SE waves 1.5 ft every 8
seconds and weak SW wind waves as the high slips offshore. The
atmosphere remains dry so no TSTM threat through tonight and
marine visibility fine. The sea breeze in middle and late
afternoon will occasionally produce SE wind gusts to 15 kt
inshore and locally moderate chop near shore.

Wednesday through Saturday...Southwesterly winds bolstered on
Wednesday by the development of inland thermal troughiness, though
wind and seas both remain below any thresholds. Thursday is one of
the more uncertain dates of the forecast as to whether or not the
front swings through or there is one last day of SW winds and FROPA
is more slated for Thursday night. Thereafter the forecast to be
dominated by onshore post-frontal easterly winds. The turn to
onshore flow will allow for some slightly larger waves to move in
especially out towards the edge of 20nm while also reducing the
nearshore/offshore wave height gradient. Still no headlines though.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...8
MARINE...Bacon/Colby


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