Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 030703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias will begin affecting the region later today as
the storm approaches the Carolinas. Impacts will continue into early
Tuesday before the storm moves north of the area. Typical warm and
humid weather will return with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms
each day.


Plethora of watches, warnings and etc being headlined across the
FA in reference to the arrival and departure of Tropical Storm
Isaias during this period. This near term period is entirely in
that window of the arrival and departure of Isaias and all
elements fcst are reflective of that. The threat of Tropical
Storm conditions will arrive mid-aftn today for the
southernmost portions of the FA, spreading north thru the aftn
and reaching the ILM NC region by early to mid evening. The
worst of these conditions will occur from mid-evening SC CWA to
early in the pre-dawn hrs for the NC CWA. Again, all of this
hedges on the latest Isaias track. Will have much improved
conditions from midday Tue thru the aftn with any backside
Isaias pcpn having pulled north. As for max temps today, much
will depend on the canopy of cirrus from Isaias and the
commencement of onshore moving lower clouds and pcpn. Delayed it
slightly over the northernmost portion of the FA and therefore
will indicate max temps a few degrees hier than guidance. The
same goes for max temps Tue, will indicate slightly hier by a
degree or 2 with subsidence on the backside of Isaias allowing
skies to dramatically improve.


Isaias will be well north of the area by Tuesday night with any
lingering impacts coming to an end. Deep southwesterly flow across
the area and high precipitable water values will lead to a
continuation of unsettled weather on Wednesday. In addition to the
ample moisture feed, weak shortwave energy will be rotating around a
trough over the central and eastern CONUS assisting with the
development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday.


Deep upper-level trough will reside over the central and eastern US
late next week and into the weekend. The potential for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will increase with the weak pockets of
upper-level energy traversing the area. The amplitude of the wave
will slowly relax on Friday and shift slightly eastward with a
progressing frontal boundary that will weaken as it approaches the
area. Upper-trough will be mostly overhead on Saturday continuing
the unsettled weather in conjunction with a developing piedmont
trough into Sunday.


VFR to dominate thru daytime morning hrs. VCSH showers after
daybreak Mon, will increase in coverage as the onshore movement
of pcpn increases as the outer circulation of Isaias closes in
from the south. MVFR conditions should be intermittent at the
start of Mon aftn, becoming dominant with occasional IFR
conditions by early to mid Mon evening thru the end of the 24
hr Taf Issuance period.

Extended Outlook...Tropical Storm Isaias will produce Tropical
Storm conditions thru roughly 10Z Tue, given the latest
official track, with the center passing across the coast and
inland between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear prior to sunrise Tue.
IFR/MVFR to dominate with a shot of LIFR across the coastal
terminals. Mainly VFR conditions from mid-day Tue and beyond
with much improved conditions. Mainly scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms during the late week period.



Today thru Tue:
Tropical Storm Isaias to approach from the south today, push
onshore tonight between Cape Fear and Myrtle Beach, and lift
away from the region Tue. In a nutshell and based on the latest
Isaias track, quickly deteriorating marine conditions during
today, maxing out tonight, followed by improvements during
daylight Tue. The CWF is self-explanatory with the wind and seas
fcst during the majority of this near term period, today thru
Tue, dedicated to the approach and departure of the circulation
associated with Isaias.

Tuesday Night thru Fri Night:
Winds and seas return to their typical state after the departure
of Isaias and the associated swell. Conditions over the coastal
waters will continue to improve through the weekend. The main
threat will be deep SW flow producing unsettled weather through
much of the week. A weak frontal boundary will approach the area
on Saturday and produce weak offshore winds for a brief period
on Saturday. Seas will remain in the 2 foot range with no
significant swell likely to cause combined seas.


SC...Hurricane Watch for SCZ054>056-058-059.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Storm Surge Warning for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Hurricane Watch for NCZ105>110.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday
     for NCZ106-108-110.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ110.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Hurricane Watch for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.


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