Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 171336
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
836 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through this morning bringing a
brief bout of colder weather through early next week. High
pressure will keep dry weather around through mid week with
slowly warming temperatures. A cold front could bring some rain
toward the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor tweaks made with morning forecast update. Cold front
has almost reached I-95 corridor, with dropping dewpoints and
gusty NW winds behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Plume of moisture from the Pacific continues to stream across
the South and into the Carolinas. At the same time, a moisture-
starved cold front is making its way through the Carolinas. As
the associated low tracks off the Mid Atlantic coast, it will
drag this front south and east through the area within a couple
of hours surrounding noon. Should see some strato-cu at the time
of FROPA, but not counting on much in the way of any pcp. Pcp
water values increase up near an inch at this time. The only
very slight chc will be right around Georgetown right noon or
shortly thereafter as front makes its way south and off the
coast.

Winds will veer through the morning hours and become gusty,
especially as they kick around to the NW behind the front. Wind
gusts up to 25 mph or so will subside through the mid to late aftn
hours, but will continue to hold up over 10 mph with CAA continuing
into tonight under a decent canopy of cirrus clouds over much of the
area. Places west of I-95 should see best chc of clearing. Although
a decent amount of high clouds may stream across the area,
considerable drying will take place in the low levels with dewpoints
dropping about 25 degrees by early Sun and pcp water values down
near a quarter of an inch or less. High temps will reach between 55
and 60 most places in CAA behind front with gusty NW winds making it
feel cooler and will drop down near freezing most places inland of
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights: Cold and dry high pressure to prevail; no significant
hazards expected

Confidence: High

Details: High pressure centered to the west will remain in control
keeping dry conditions in place despite some mid-level shortwave
energy passing through from time to time. The trickiest part of the
forecast is the mid/high cloud coverage/thickness which will impact
temps to some extent.

Temps should be below normal for the most part, especially Sunday
when highs will only be near 50. Overnight lows will be near to
below freezing away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights: Mostly above normal temperatures with some rain chances
starting Thursday night; no significant hazards expected

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: High pressure will generally prevail through Thursday and
with no significant moisture around we don`t expect any rain
chances. However, a cold front will then likely approach Thursday
night and pass through Friday bringing breezy conditions and some
showers.

Outside of Tuesday night when temps should be a bit below
normal, temps will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. A few breaks in an otherwise thick cirrus deck. SW winds
just veering to the W will increase and shift to the NW as cold
front crosses the area this morning. A 40-45 kt SW LLJ moves
across between 06-13Z, with potential for LLWS ahead of the
front.

Any pcp fades away before front moves into and through area but
may see some brief MVFR ceilings in the 2-3k ft range. Overall,
expect a 3-6k ft layer of clouds mainly between 12-14Z at KFLO
and KLBT as winds shift to the NW and become gusty, and from
14-16Z at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR. Winds quickly turn northwesterly
behind the front 13-15Z with gusts to 20 kt. Gusts level off
after 18Z with a cirrus deck continuing after the frontal
passage. Plume of upper level moisture and cirrus should get
suppressed a bit south allowing for clouds at inland terminals
to thin out or clear through late day. Overall, plenty of drying
will take place with only cirrus streaming overhead tonight.
Winds will remain up around 5 kts overnight as they veer around
to a more northerly direction.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...SW winds will increase and veer as cold front
approaches and then crosses the waters through early this afternoon.
A brief Small Craft Advisory is in effect for wind gusts up near 30
kts through this morning mainly ahead of front.
Once winds kick around to the NW this aftn, they will begin to
slowly diminish into tonight. Increasing SW winds ahead of the front
will push seas up to 3 to 5 ft, especially in the outer waters as
winds veer around becoming offshore.

Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure centered to the west
will prevail keeping winds mostly from the north but winds and
especially seas look to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ


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