Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 141252 AAA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
852 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high
pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
Unsettled weather may return late Sunday ahead of a stronger
cold front. Dry and colder air will build in Monday night
through Tuesday night next week, then temperatures will begin to
rebound by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging continues to deepen across the Southeast today leading to
well above normal temperatures, roughly 15F above normal, and clear
skies. Highs today will attempt to reach low 80s, kicking off a
decent sea breeze in the afternoon. Deep mixing and dry air will
bring another day of low RHs, bottoming out around 20-25%. Warming
continues tonight, with lows in the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A low-amplitude mid-level ridge axis will move off the coast
Friday, as a weak shortwave approaches from the west. Deep WSW
flow will propel temps Friday afternoon into the low 80s most
areas, with the exception of the coast, where highs will top out
in the low/mid 70s. Moisture will be on the increase Friday,
initially in the form of cirrus, with clouds lowering through
the afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected Friday night in association with the shortwave,
although the deepest moisture is expected to remain just south
of the forecast area. Southwest flow Friday night will hold
temps up around 60/low 60s. Showers will push off the Cape Fear
coast Saturday morning as zonal flow aloft pushes a surface cold
front off the coast. Saturday will remain dry with highs still
above climo, topping out in the low 70s coast to mid 70s inland.
A weak surface trough will be crossing the Carolinas late
Saturday night, and should be just west of the area by sunrise
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep 500 mb low will rotate across SE Canada Sunday. A weak
shortwave and associated cold front will cross the area Sunday
evening. The GFS has come more in line with Canadian and ECMWF in
keeping the best rain chances to the south of the area, as moisture
moves from the Gulf coast across southern GA and southern SC. High
pressure will build over the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday as the
upper trough axis shifts across the eastern seaboard. Highs Monday
will return to around climo...mid 60s...with below normal temps on
tap Monday night through Tuesday night. Patchy frost will be in
play both nights.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. Clear skies. Light SSW winds as high pressure maintains
influence over the area. Southerly sea breeze will develop
around 17z before pushing inland as land temps soar into the low
80s.

Extended Outlook...A couple cold fronts will affect the area
over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods
of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday
night and again from Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...One more day of benign marine conditions as high
pressure offshore maintains its influence. Light and variable winds
early today will become southerly in the afternoon as a decent sea
breeze develops with inland temps reaching low 80s. Southwest winds
around 10 kts tonight as pressure gradient begins to tighten around
offshore high and approaching cold front. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft
range today and tonight, combination of weak SSW wind chop and a 1
ft 10 sec SE swell.

Friday through Tuesday: The gradient will strengthen over the
waters Friday as high pressure moves further offshore. A cold
front will cross the Appalachians Friday evening and push off
the coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of the
front, with chances diminishing Saturday morning. Weak high
pressure will briefly build in behind the front. Another cold
front will move across the waters Sunday night, followed by a
strong northerly surge as high pressure pushes into the
Carolinas from the west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/CRM


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