Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 022132
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
532 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Colin will move near Cape Fear tonight and away
from the area Sunday. Most of the storm`s impacts will remain
offshore. Typical summertime heat and humidity will persist all
of next week with scattered thunderstorms possible each day. A
front could reach the area late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Warnings have been canceled for coastal
Brunswick County as of the 5 PM EDT update on Tropical Storm
Colin. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Coastal New
Hanover and Pender counties.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The clock is nearing 4 PM EDT at the time of this typing, and it`s
hard to discern the center of Tropical Storm Colin on various GOES-
16 satellite feeds. In general, the center is near or just offshore
of the SC Grand Strand region, perhaps near North Myrtle Beach. The
hazards for northeast South Carolina and its adjacent waters tapered
off a few hours ago. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Warnings still
persist for coastal Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender Counties, and
all of their adjacent coastal waters, in southeast North Carolina.
Rain has increased in coverage in these areas over the last few
hours, and risks for minor flooding are still in play through this
afternoon and evening.

Colin will slowly move off to the northeast, hugging the North
Carolina coastline, emerging near Cape Hatteras by Sunday morning.
Showers should decrease in coverage tonight, and the low stratus
deck should slowly start to lift. Lows tonight in the lower 70s.

Sunday, a weak cold front currently south of the Ohio River Valley
will drop southward towards the Piedmont region. Though the front is
rather weak, the upper jet drops slightly southward, bringing some
extra forcing into the area. Meanwhile, expecting more sunshine
Sunday, allowing for more instability to build. This potentially
primes the atmosphere for some strong to severe thunderstorms by
Sunday afternoon, with the main threat being damaging winds. As
such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has painted the forecast
area in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/5) for severe weather.
High temperatures shoot up into the low-to-mid 90s.

Elevated rip currents continue across all area beaches. Continuing
to highlight the awareness here, given the extra tourism for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tropical Storm Colin should be out of the picture by Sunday
night. Clusters of thunderstorms developing along a southward-
moving vorticity maximum in central North Carolina during the
day Sunday should sink south and affect our area Sunday night.
Forecast PoPs are in the 40-60 percent range, highest near
Lumberton and Bennettsville. A weak cold front pushed southward
in the flow behind the departing storm now appears it will make
it as far south as northeastern South Carolina late Sunday
night into Monday morning. This could help support storms along
the coast and into South Carolina after midnight.

The boundary is expected to stall somewhere in the Murrells
Inlet vicinity, but will return northward during the day Monday
as the seabreeze plus Bermuda High Pressure offshore develop a
little stronger onshore wind. Substantial instability
(2000-3000 J/kg) should develop during the day, aided by
dewpoints in the mid 70s. With the seabreeze plus the
retreating front still in the area there`s good potential (50-60
percent) for another round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
to develop. Monday`s highs should reach 90 inland with mid-upper
80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through Thursday fairly typical summer weather is expected
across the Carolinas. The upper level ridge will remain parked
off to our west with a north to northwest 500 mb flow in place.
This pattern will feature typically hot daytime temperatures
with forecast highs in the low-mid 90s inland. Multiple weak
disturbances will sink southward in the upper level flow, each
with the potential to produce clusters of showers &
thunderstorms.

Activity should remain scattered in nature until late in the
week when the stalled front may again make a run south into the
Carolinas. Given considerable uncertainty at this time frame I`m
capping daily PoPs at 50-60 percent Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Minimal Tropical Storm Colin continues to ride up the Carolina
coastline, bringing plenty of tropical moisture to the area.
Seeing greater coverage of rain over the last few hours,
occasionally bringing visibilities down to 4-5SM for KILM, KCRE,
KMYR, and KLBT. Ceilings bouncing back and forth between VFR and
MVFR, and that`s expected to continue through this evening.
Winds generally from the SSE, though variable at times, due to
the chaotic nature of the tropical storm.

Tonight, rain coverage decreases, and ceilings should slowly
start to lift as Colin exits. Should see more VFR at this point.
Winds become more southwesterly towards the end of the 18Z TAF
period, with a cumulus deck popping up.

Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR through late weekend/early
next week, especially at the coast. This due to better chances
for afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms as well
as early morning onshore movement of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Tropical Storm Colin is currently located near or
just offshore of the South Carolina Grand Strand region. The
adjacent SC coastal waters are currently in a Small Craft Advisory.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the coastal waters
adjacent to southeast North Carolina. Colin will continue to ride to
the northeast along the NC coastline. Southwesterly flow continues
through tonight, becoming more southerly by Sunday. In this same
timeframe, winds and seas should dip below SCA thresholds. Can`t
rule out some waterspouts, particularly over the coastal NC waters,
as Colin continues its trajectory tonight.

Sunday Night through Thursday...A weak front pulled south behind
departing Tropical Storm Colin now appears it will reach the
the eastern Carolinas late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Southwest winds will shift northeasterly behind the front, but
without any significant increase in wind speed expected. The
front will stall in the Murrells Inlet vicinity, but winds
should turn back around the southeast during the day Monday as
the front retreats north.

Moderate south to southwest winds are expected to develop late
Tuesday into Thursday as Bermuda High pressure offshore takes
hold. Although Monday`s front should remain well to our north,
the upper level pattern may still direct multiple thunderstorm
clusters south and eastward to the coastal Carolinas through the
period with impacts on marine weather conditions. Seas should
consist of a background 2-foot 8-second southeast swell with an
increasing contribution from south to southwest short period
wind chop.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA


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