791
FXUS62 KILM 121649
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1249 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through Monday. High rain chances for
Tuesday through Wednesday with an approaching storm system. Dry
again Thursday, before wet weather returns late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minimal changes with the 1 PM EDT update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak pressure gradient will reside across the area through
the near term period in the wake of a weak boundary moving
across this morning. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today
nearing 80 degrees in most areas under mostly sunny skies.
Monday morning lows in the middle 50s or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Continued dry into Monday as sfc high pressure shifts offshore.
Expect increasing mid/high clouds through the day as moisture
increases in the WSW flow aloft, with light southerly sfc flow.
Temps near climatological norms, with highs in the upr 70s to
lwr 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wet weather expected for a good portion of the long term period
as two upr-level troughs affect the area...one Tue/Wed and the
second Fri/Sat. Isentropic lift increases with a passing warm
front Tue leading to categorical PoPs. The rain may be moderate
to heavy at times as favorable forcing passes directly over the
area. The clouds and rain will keep temps a bit lower Tue than
previous days...highs only in the mid/up 70s. Some drier air
wraps around for Wednesday, but with the upr-level trough
directly over the area rain chances remain in the chance-likely
range. Dry then for Thur as a mid-level ridge traverses the
area. Next upr-level trough moves in late week, but will keep
PoPs no higher than 50% as agreement isn`t high amongst guidance
with the timing as this is still several days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Sea breeze developing along the Grand Strand may bring more
southerly wind directions this afternoon as high pressure
settles overhead. Calm winds and clear skies overnight. Dew
points mixed into the mid 40s today, so most areas should stay
fog-free, however some of our radiative cold spots may see some
shallow morning ground fog. Keeping terminals VFR with lowest
confidence at CRE. VFR cumulus develops tomorrow afternoon and
high clouds begin to overspread the area. Flight restrictions
possible late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening with
shower chances increasing.

Extended Outlook... Widespread VFR through Monday afternoon.
Flight restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the
next weather system moving in. Improving conditions into
Thursday. Another system approaches the area for next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
A weak surface trough will move across the waters this morning
shifting winds to a west/northwest direction. Wind speeds will
remain modest at best just above ten knots or so. By Monday
morning the pressure pattern remains weak but it seems a bit of
a southerly component begins to develop. Significant seas will
be 1-3 feet.

Monday through Thursday:
One last day of benign marine conditions Mon as broad sfc high
pressure shifts offshore and winds become out of the SSE at ~10
kt in the aftn. Marine conditions then deteriorate by Tue as a
warm front lifts north through the area ahead of the next low
pressure system, with southerly flow increasing to ~20 kt and
seas up to 5-6 ft. SCA conditions are possible and may continue
until late Wed before low pressure to the north pushes offshore
later in the day. Improving marine conditions into Thur as weak
sfc high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/SHK