Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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812 FXUS62 KILM 130002 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 802 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure begins to move offshore tonight. Weak low pressure passes offshore for the end of the week with a moisture- starved cold front passing through over the weekend bringing temperatures and humidity down a bit for early next week. && .UPDATE... No changes made to previous forecast. Moderate rip current risk continues for all local beaches Thursday, with a strong longshore current forecasted at Brunswick and Horry county beaches. 0z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure to our north will pivot overnight as it slides offshore. Onshore flow this afternoon will persist tonight along the coast. Surface inversion should bring light or calm winds to most inland areas. As thick upper level cirrus overspreads the area overnight, warmer temperatures and better mixing are possible over northeastern SC where boundary layer winds should exceed 10 knots. Some patchy fog is possible across southeastern NC by sunrise in lighter winds and less cloud cover, but confidence is low. Expecting to stay dry tonight although low clouds could start to move into the coastal portions of SC tomorrow morning just after sunrise. Increasing moisture advection within the boundary layer could produce some showers around near the coast, especially into the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather will still be dependent on the offshore low that will travel up from FL through the period. While the strength of the system still appears to be predominantly weak and the chance for rain remains low away from the immediate coast, it could still have an adverse impact on the beaches via swells. Otherwise, highs in the 90s with humid conditions increasing Fri night into Sat ahead of a weak backdoor cold front, low precip chances confined to the coast. Heat indices look to reach near 100F Sat, with lows near 70 Fri night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure moves overhead at the start of the period where it will slowly shift to our north through midweek. Some weak shortwaves energy could travel around the high leading to low precip chances, but the forcing will have to fight the drier air in place. Highs in the 90s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Predominantly VFR through this TAF period. Boundary layer winds are expected to be elevated enough to hinder any fog development. Onshore flow may bring few to scattered low clouds, around 2kft, to the coastal areas of northeast SC and Brunswick county from 8z through morning, including KMYR and KCRE. Not expecting any flight restrictions at this time given bulk of the moisture remains offshore. Few high clouds and scattered diurnal cu around 6-7 kft Thursday with easterly winds around 10 kts, and gusts near 20 kts at coastal terminals with sea breeze starting around 15z. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Onshore flow expected to continue overnight as high pressure slides offshore. A developing low well to our south will produce a tightening gradient on Thursday. Winds shift slightly, becoming more easterly. Sustained winds up to 20 knots are possible. Gusts should be periodic between 20-25 knots into the afternoon and early evening. Seas remain choppy with a persistent easterly wind. Seas around 3-4 feet become 4-5 feet on Thursday. Thursday Night through Monday...An offshore low could lead to an increased SE swell through the end of the week becoming NE for the weekend behind a cold front. Light N winds will become S`ly Fri aftn, gradually becoming W`ly by Sat with a turn to the E with the frontal passage. Seas generally 3-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...VAO MARINE...21/LEW