267
FXUS62 KILM 272000
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Stalled
front will return north late Friday. Another front late Sunday into
Monday will potentially bring moderate rainfall to the area.
Unseasonably hot temperatures will temporarily cool back to normal
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Storms were ongoing this afternoon focused inland near I-95
corridor, associated with front inland, and closer to the coast
along sea breeze boundary. Models show outflows and eastward
propagation of front through this evening maintaining potential
for strong to severe storms with torrential rain, frequent
lightning and possible severe wet downbursts with lower threat
of hail. Area remains in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe weather.

Front will become diffuse tonight as it lingers over the area
with winds becoming very light and variable and then more
easterly overnight. Storms will fade as rain cooled air becomes
more widespread, loss of heating occurs and best shortwave
energy moves offshore. Heat Advisory expires at 6p and although
clouds and storms were becoming more widespread some areas will
continue to experience heat index values above 105. Increased
subsidence and plenty of shallow moisture from this today`s
storms will increase possibility of fog overnight into the pre-
dawn hours, but lingering debris clouds may help to limit it.
Temps will drop into the low to mid 70s overnight for lows.

The lingering frontal boundary will lift back inland and north
on Friday with winds coming back around to the SE to southerly.
Ridge builds overhead on Fri which should help to limit
convection somewhat, but lingering moisture and onshore flow
will maintain a moist air mass. With heating of the day as temps
reach within a few degrees of 90s, expect localized convection
Fri aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temps remain a bit above normal through the short term, with high
dewpoints in the mid 70s maintaining humid conditions. Upper ridge
temporarily builds over the area for Saturday, with subsidence
inversion present aloft. Given moisture at the surface, and local
boundaries (sea breeze and Piedmont trough), could still see a few
afternoon storms Saturday with pops 30-45%, perhaps capped beneath
the inversion. Highs in the low 90s, with another day of heat
indices in the triple digits. Low temps in the mid 70s both nights
won`t provide much relief.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging and associated subsidence will be weakening during the day
Sunday. Another day of above normal temps (low to mid 90s) and
increased humidity Sunday, though depending on timing of increasing
clouds during the day this may change. A 500mb shortwave plus an
approaching front Sunday night, combined with PWATs over 2", will
provide decent rain chances beginning Sunday afternoon into
overnight hours. If clouds clear out early Monday, forecast
soundings and instability look good for scattered storms Monday
afternoon. Rain chances continue ahead of a second, stronger front
progged for Monday night. While QPF through Monday will most likely
not be enough to alleviate drought conditions, some areas may see a
much needed 1-2" over the next few days. Behind the second front,
the dewpoints look to drop below 70F across the area for the first
time in a while and temps lower to near or just below normal for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging returns aloft along with some dry
air, though PWATs remain just above normal. Have maintained slight
chance of sea breeze storms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR with main period of sub-VFR in stronger storms
between 19z-01z. May also see some IFR fog or low stratus
between 07-12z. Area remains in pre-frontal warm and unstable
airmass with storms west of inland terminals forecast to move
into vicinity of LBT and FLO by 19z and then move eastward
toward the coast. Other less intense storms were developing
along sea breeze boundary and should be in vicinity of coastal
terminals after 20z as steering flow becomes more westerly.
Overall, SW winds near 10 kt will become more variable and
lighten this evening and overnight as boundary moves down over
area. This should aid in fog development, especially inland
terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...SW flow ahead of front will lighten and become
more variable tonight as front drops south and stalls near the
coast. Light and variable winds will continue through Friday
morning before onshore to SE flow develops later on Fri as front
lifts back northward and dissipates. Seas will subside to 3 ft
or less through Fri. A SE swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds will
mix in through Fri.

Friday night through Tuesday...Winds generally out of the south
through Sunday night around Bermuda high, with slight increase in
speeds on Sunday ahead of an approaching front. Frontal passage will
lead to more variable wind directions on Monday. Seas around 2 feet
through Saturday night, with 2-3 ft forecasted for Sunday and Monday
as increased S wind chop mixes with SE swell. Best chance for
widespread storms and potentially heavy rain over the waters will
come late Sunday into Monday ahead of the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming holiday.

&&


.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ024-032-033-
     039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/VAO