Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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905 FXUS62 KILM 100206 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1006 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight brining only scattered showers and storms as well as ending the heat heading into Monday. Rain-free and seasonable conditions for much of the week will give way to a late week increase in humidity and rain chances. && .UPDATE... Area of showers and thunderstorms making steady progress through the area as expected from the earlier update. No significant changes necessary. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A front will drop into the area tonight into Monday as a series of shortwaves at H5 move through the area. This should produce isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening into Monday with the greatest chances for rain spreading from north to south with time. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to around 70. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather expected Monday night with a front stalled just offshore but still enough mid level ascent to lead to low level upglide. There`s a pretty good indication that the showers and storms will be focused along a narrow axis, and this will hinge upon the position of the boundary. Some guidance paints the high QPF along the immediate coast whereas others keep it over the water. A weak wave of low pressure should turn low level winds offshore Tuesday allowing for dry air to advect in from the NW, aided further by the mid level trough axis swinging through. Tuesday`s highs will be near normal whereas both nights will be just a few degrees on the cool side. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Much of the long term should be rather quiet as weak westerly mid level flow goes light and variable while the surface pattern grows similarly mushy. Early period temperatures will be near normal while late period highs run a few degrees above climatology. Some isolated convection may be able to develop along the seabreeze beginning Thursday or Friday. More synoptic scale moisture advection may come out of the south over the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all areas will give way to an area of showers and thunderstorms moving across either side of midnight. While lower ceilings and visibilities will be transitory with this initial round more prevailing MVFR conditions may settle in for some time afterwards. Extended Outlook...VFR through the period though restrictions are possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms, mainly Mon-Tue and again late in the week. && .MARINE... Through Sunday: SW winds to 15 to 20 KT late this afternoon will decrease to about 10 KT by Monday as they veer to the NW. Seas will run 2 to 3 FT. Monday night through Friday... A weak wave of low pressure passes by along an offshore frontal boundary Tuesday. Thereafter a well- defined pressure pattern will be hard to come by. High pressure will be in it`s normal location across the western Atlantic but the lingering troughiness from the decaying frontal boundary appears to prevent it from extending westward into the U.S. much. As such winds will be capped at 10 knots and a pronounced direction will be hard to forecast. Seas will run 2-3 ft generally in a shorter period wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ILM