081
FXUS61 KILN 211954
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid airmass will continue through the weekend. A
cold front will move through Sunday, bringing with it showers
and storms. Following the frontal passage, slightly cooler and
drier air will filter in Monday into early Tuesday before warmer
and much more humid air quickly returns. More showers and
storms will be possible Tuesday night through Wednesday,
with drier and cooler conditions settling in by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Heat wave continues with mid and upper level ridge centered
over the Ohio Valley. Better coverage of storms will remain
around the periphery of this ridge mainly north of the ILN/s
area. Cannot rule out an isolated stray thunderstorm across
portions of central Ohio this evening. With the loss of daytime
heating this threat of a shower or storm will end by late
evening.

In the humid airmass low temperatures to dip into the lower/mid
70s. Some valley fog will be possible with light winds humid
conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid and upper level ridge to continue to stretch from the
Southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley Saturday.

The warmest stretch of the heat wave to continue into Saturday.
With better low level flow will support deeper diurnal mixing
leading to hot temperatures but also slightly drier air.

Expect highs in the mid and upper 90s with slightly lower
dewpoints yielding max heat indices around 100. Drier air and
lack of forcing should inhibit convective development Saturday
across the area.

Mid level shortwave to track across the northern Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. Saturday night starts dry with a low
chance of convection into the northwest late as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Low temperatures
to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to drag a cold front across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Ample instability will allow
thunderstorms to form along and ahead of the front. Potent winds
aloft enhancing storm strength and duration will enable the
potential for severe weather including damaging winds and large
hail. Heavy rain will also be possible from an environment
containing over 2 inches PWAT.

Precip and severe weather potential falls off quickly Sunday night
as the cold front exits east. High pressure is expected to bring dry
weather Monday through most of Tuesday. Another cold front and more
showers and storms are forecast for Wednesday. High pressure and dry
air return for Thursday and Friday.

Clouds and precip near the cold front will help limit highs to
around 90 on Sunday. Slight reduction to temps is indicated for
Monday under modest cold advection, with highs ranging from the mid
80s to around 90. Another hot day is predicted for Tuesday when
readings will reach the 90s again. The next cold front should allow
readings to retreat back to the 80s in most locations for Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge aloft and at the surface to continue to influence our
weather today and Saturday. Although an isold thunderstorm is
possible mainly across the central Ohio better coverage is
expected north of the TAF sites.

VFR CIGs are expected this afternoon into tonight with
SCT cumulus clouds dissipating this evening. Could again see
some MVFR or even brief IFR VSBYs overnight mainly at KLUK and
KILN.

Any fog will quickly improve Saturday morning with VFR cumulus
clouds again developing during late morning into the afternoon.

Winds will be westerly at 5-7kts this afternoon becoming light
and variable tonight. Southwest winds will increase to around 8
kts Saturday.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday and late Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR