Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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157 FXUS61 KILN 241752 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 152 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A brief respite in the heat and humidity today, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on Tuesday. Chance for storms returns Tuesday and increases Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek before heat and humidity build back for this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level trof over New England with a ridge over the Plains - placing the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in northwest flow. Surface high pressure to build southeast becoming centered over the area this afternoon. Drier air continues to be advected into the region from the north with surface dewpoints dropping to between 55 and 60 by late day. Expect scattered cumulus clouds with the best coverage across Central Ohio. High temperatures to top out in the lower and middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The tranquil conditions from the near term period will spill into the beginning of the short term period, although they won`t last too long, unfortunately. As the aforementioned sfc high shifts to the E of the OH Vly tonight into Tuesday morning, abrupt moisture return will begin to nose back into the area from the W. This will occur as another S/W ejects E through the Great Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday morning, with a surge of higher theta-e air nosing in from the W toward daybreak Tuesday. The forecast for very late tonight into the daytime Tuesday becomes incredibly complex, and will be largely dictated by convective evolution throughout the time period. Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a decaying MCS to be diving in from the N/NW right around daybreak Tuesday, eventually encountering a thermodynamically-unfavorable environment with E/SE extent during the morning. This MCS will be forced by the S/W tracking through the Great Lakes region, eventually pivoting toward the pooling of better LL instby (across IL/IN) well to the SW of the best forcing/shear. There will still be quite a bit of LL dry air entrenched across the local area Tuesday morning, with dewpoints only in the lower 60s across parts of WC OH and EC IN around sunrise. The better LL moisture transport, at least initially, will be to the north of the local area across far nrn IL/IN/OH early Tuesday morning in areas where the mature MCS will be better organized and perhaps a bit more intense. However, as we progress through the heart of the morning hours, the convective complex should track to the SE, or even straight to the S, across wrn parts of the local area, weakening and likely dissipating near I-71 as it does so into early Tuesday afternoon. Of course, the convective debris blowoff and pooling of rain-cooled air will likely throw a wrench into the fcst temps on Tuesday, but there may be enough late-day rebound in the wake of morning convection to eventually reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s as currently expected. But this is far from certain. By later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, stronger theta-e advection into the area will likely be underway (eroding the probable cold pool from earlier in the day), suggesting the rebound in temps/humidity/SB instby may be significant by late in the day near/W of I-71. At this juncture, it is likely that additional clusters or complexes of storms may develop, initially to the W across IL/IN before spreading to the E into parts of the local area by early evening. Attempting to pinpoint timing and exact locations at this time would be imprudent. However, the best potential for storm activity late Tuesday will be focused near/N of I-71, with drier conditions favored across NE KY and parts of the lower Scioto Valley. Given the robust destabilization efforts underway in the W late Tuesday and the expectation for at least /some/ storms, it is worth mentioning the potential for locally gusty/damaging winds with any of this activity given the increasingly-favorable LL/deep-layer thermodynamic fields and potential for cold-pool driven complexes. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will be working its way into the area at the start of the extended period, with the parent low moving east out of the Hudson Bay area. Again, there is still much ambiguity as to when/if storms will be firing Tuesday afternoon/ what the evening/overnight environment will be like as this frontal boundary moves through. All guidance still hints at some type of MCS feature bowing through *somewhere* in the Mid-Atlantic region at *some time* Tuesday into Wednesday (rather specific, we know). Persistent lack of consistency not only between models but between runs has made for a particularly challenging forecast. Should this MCS feature occur, it will likely be driven by its local cold pool and primary threats will be strong to damaging wind gusts/localized heavy rainfall. By Wednesday, the cold front will finally be moving into the CWA and there is the possibility of redevelopment of storms given this additional synoptic forcing. The strongest shear will be nearer to the Lakes and there is some question as the degree of atmospheric recovery after any overnight convection. However, should instability build back in, would anticipate a return of thunderstorm activity with strong to damaging winds the primary threat. Finally, want to note that PWATs are still coming in around 2 standard deviations above normal for this entire time period, indicating that any storms will likely have efficient rainfall rates and any training will result in localized flooding or runoff. Post frontal air on Thursday indicates high temperatures in the low 80s (possibly even upper 70s in our north) with dew points in the upper 60s. Weak ridging and surface high pressure take over and we`ll have mostly sunny skies with some CAA cu. Overnight lows in the upper 50s as we head into Friday. Friday we see yet another disturbance on the horizon and return southerly flow helps pump warm, moist air back into the region. Mid and upper level clouds increase and highs reach back into the upper 80s. Precip from this system looks to move into the region sometime Friday into Saturday as the warm associated with this disturbance lifts through the area. This keeps temperatures on the warmer side, with highs in the upper 80s/ low 90s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday, we dry out again and temperatures cool slightly in the post cold-frontal air. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Drier and tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue today as high pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley. Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds have develop between 4000 and 5000 feet. These clouds will dissipate with the loss of heating early this evening leaving mainly clear sky conditions. A weakening/decaying thunderstorm complex to our northwest will allow some debris clouds to spill in late tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional thunderstorm development is likely Tuesday with the best chance/threat north of the TAF sites thru 18Z. The thunderstorm threat shifts south and will likely impact the TAF sites Tuesday night. Will mention this threat in the outlook period. Expect generally VFR conditions to continue overnight into Tuesday. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsby restriction at KLUK valley location but with drier air over the area have elected to omit the mention in the forecast. North-northwest winds around 8 kts this afternoon become light and variable this evening and then southerly early Tuesday - increasing to 10-15kts with gusts of 20-25 kts Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...AR