498
FXUS61 KILN 280602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
202 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the
forecast dry. Warmer temperatures arrive on Friday and into
Saturday, with additional rounds of showers and storms on
Saturday with an approaching system. Drier weather returns for
the end of the weekend and start of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure and dry conditions will be present overnight.
Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight with lows
in the 50s to low 60s. A little drier overnight tonight and
there will be an increase in high clouds, therefore only have
river valley fog mention in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to push eastward. By the morning of
Friday flow will be more southeasterly, becoming southerly by
the afternoon. This will subsequently push more warm and moist
air into the area, with dewpoints in the upper 50s being
advected alongside air temperatures in the upper 80s. South of
the Ohio River, these values may be slightly higher. More partly
cloudy conditions may be observed throughout the day as a
result.

Overnight Friday, an upper-to-mid-level disturbance will push
further into the upper Midwest, increasing cloud cover as the
night continues. This system will likely spur the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours of
Saturday. Severe impacts from this broken line of convection are
minimal, though marginal amounts of instability and shear could
develop an isolated strong storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will shift east across the region
Saturday into Saturday with an associated cold front dropping
southeast across the mid and upper Ohio Valley later Saturday
night into Sunday morning. In developing southwest flow ahead of
this, temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s with surface dewpoints nudging up into the low to mid
70s. This should allow for decent destabilization through the
day on Saturday, although there is a little bit of uncertainty
as to how some potential lingering morning convection may affect
this. As the better forcing moves in through the afternoon,
expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread from
northwest to southeast across our area through the day. Assuming
we are able to destabilize enough, deep layer shear profiles
would be supportive of some severe storms Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening. Damaging wind would be the main threat,
although it would be tough to rule out an isolated tornado as
low level shear will also be increasing through the
afternoon/evening. The combination of temps and dewpoints will
also lead to some heat indices up to around 100 degrees or so
Saturday afternoon, especially across our southern areas.

Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through Saturday night
with drier air moving in behind the front through early next
week. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s northwest to
the upper 80s in the southeast, while highs on Monday will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire area. More
summer-like temperatures will return through mid week as upper
level ridging builds across the southeast US. Some mid level
energy moving over the ridge will lead to thunderstorm chances
returning Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of surface high pressure across the eastern Great
Lakes this morning will move off the New England coast by this
evening. Through sunrise, some mid and high level clouds will
spill east/southeast across the region. Winds will be from the
east between 5 and 10 knots. For today, low level flow will veer
to a southerly direction. Some late day cumulus clouds may form
near the Ohio River, otherwise, SCT to LCL BKN mid and high
level clouds can be expected. Winds will be from the south
around 10 knots.

For tonight, embedded mid level disturbances in a
west/southwest flow aloft will interact with increasing deep
moisture and a low level jet. This will first bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then, by late tonight,
showers and embedded thunderstorms will become more prevalent,
mainly along and north of I-70 (KDAY to KCMH/KLCK) where the low
level convergence will be more focused. MVFR ceilings and
MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible in thunderstorms. South
winds near 10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman