Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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658 FXUS61 KILN 230152 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 952 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold on Sunday. A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on Monday, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heat Advisory was allowed to expire at 8 pm. Have seen a few showers this evening across northern Kentucky and the Lower Scioto Valley of Ohio. They have been isolated and driven by daytime heating and are dissipating with the setting of the sun. For the rest of the night expect mid to high level clouds across the CWA. Late at night, Midwest convection, or whatever is left of it, will approach the northwest portion of the CWA. Convection should be weaker, but enough for chance PoPs across east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio. Tonight will be another warm one, with lows generally in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front thru the area Sunday afternoon. Pre- frontal showers and embedded thunder in a weakening trends will be possible Sunday morning. An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold front. Model solutions continue to trend faster with this front. Moderate instability develops ahead of the front. Shear looks to be unidirectional with bulk shear of 20-25 kts. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong to damaging winds with DCAPE values forecast to be 1000-1200 J/KG. This potential for severe weather will generally be along and east of I-71. Storm chances diminish from northwest to southeast late in the day as drier air filters in from the northwest with the passage of the front. High temperatures Sunday will be tricky given the frontal passage. Forecast highs to range from the mid 80s northwest to near 90 southeast. Northwest flow develops Sunday night with high pressure nosing into the area offering cooler and drier conditions. Low temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and dry air are forecast for Monday into Tuesday. The threat for showers begins late Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Carrying likely to categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with frontal passage. High pressure settling over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Thursday and Friday. The next front may bring a few more showers on Saturday. Temperatures fluctuating in relation to frontal position will begin with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Monday, rising back into the 90s Tuesday under a surge of warm advection ahead of the first cold front. Readings slip a few degrees to around 90 on Wednesday thanks to cloud and precip along the front. Highs fall back to the 80s Thursday in cold advection behind the front, before rising back into the 90s Friday and Saturday in another round of warm advection ahead of the second cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any cumulus will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating shortly after 00Z. Expect some high clouds for the rest of the evening, with the potential for an increase in clover cover late tonight/early Sunday morning as leftover upstream convection works east into the Ohio Valley. Cloud bases likely lower later at night as well, but remain above 5k ft. Due to uncertainty on how much convection is left, have continued VCSH for now, but may have to include SHRA especially for Dayton/Cincinnati terminals Sunday morning if confidence increases in weakening convection holding together this far east. Eventually, with daytime heating and a cold front approaching, additional convection will refire by afternoon. VCTS is included at all TAF sites for now. Based on timing, KCMH/KLCK may have the best opportunity for thunderstorms mainly 17z-22z. Outside of any thunderstorms, southwest winds Sunday may gust as high as 25 kt, then winds will shift to west/northwest behind the front. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and late Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/AR NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...BPP