038
FXUS61 KILN 222000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat wave continues today before a brief respite arrives Sunday into
Monday with slightly cooler and drier air, especially on Monday. A
few showers and storms are expected on Sunday, during the morning
into mid afternoon. By late Tuesday, warmer and much more humid air
will quickly build back into the region, with chances for storms
returning Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler
conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Heat wave continues across the area today. Mid and upper level ridge
stretches from the Southern Plains across the Ohio Valley into the
Mid Atlantic. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have developed with
the afternoon heating. This ridge will inhibit the development of
widespread convection, although a renegade shower or storm can not
be ruled out into early evening - mainly east of I-71.

Cumulus clouds will dissipate and any isold showers/storms with the
loss of heating this evening with some mid/high level clouds
overspreading the area later tonight.

Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
overnight and Sunday. Pre-frontal showers and embedded thunder from
a mid deck will be possible toward sunrise across the northwest.
This pcpn activity should be in a weakening trend as it moves across
the area.

The increase in clouds, moisture and southwest winds staying up will
translate to a very warm night. Lows only dip into the mid 70s for
many areas.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front thru the area
Sunday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and embedded thunder in a
weakening trends will be possible Sunday morning.

An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the
late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold
front. Model solutions continue to trend faster with this front.
Moderate instability develops ahead of the front. Shear looks
to be unidirectional with bulk shear of 20-25 kts. A few of the
stronger storms could produce strong to damaging winds with
DCAPE values forecast to be 1000-1200 J/KG. This potential for
severe weather will generally be along and east of I-71.

Storm chances diminish from northwest to southeast late in the
day as drier air filters in from the northwest with the passage
of the front.

High temperatures Sunday will be tricky given the frontal
passage. Forecast highs to range from the mid 80s northwest to
near 90 southeast.

Northwest flow develops Sunday night with high pressure nosing
into the area offering cooler and drier conditions. Low
temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and dry air are forecast for Monday into Tuesday. The
threat for showers begins late Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
Carrying likely to categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday with frontal passage. High pressure settling over the
Great Lakes will provide dry weather Thursday and Friday. The next
front may bring a few more showers on Saturday.

Temperatures fluctuating in relation to frontal position will begin
with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Monday, rising back into the
90s Tuesday under a surge of warm advection ahead of the first cold
front. Readings slip a few degrees to around 90 on Wednesday thanks
to cloud and precip along the front. Highs fall back to the 80s
Thursday in cold advection behind the front, before rising back into
the 90s Friday and Saturday in another round of warm advection ahead
of the second cold front.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge remains across the Ohio Valley today which will
inhibit the development of widespread convection. VFR conditions
this afternoon into tonight with scattered to bkn cumulus
clouds around 5000 feet. A renegade shower or storm can not be
ruled out - mainly east of I-71 but coverage would be so low and
short lived that no mention is in the TAF forecast at this time.
Cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of heating this
evening with some mid/high level clouds overspreading the area
after 06Z tonight.

Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
overnight and Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front thru
the area Sunday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and embedded
thunder from a mid deck will be possible toward sunrise Sunday.
This pcpn activity should be in a weakening trend as it moves
across the area. Have included a VCSH mention to account for
this threat toward 12Z.

An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the
late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold
front. At this time have included a mention of VCTS with
continued VFR ceilings but can not rule out the possibility of
MVFR ceilings or lower in storms.

Southwest winds at 10-12kts this afternoon will drop to less
than 10 kts this evening and then gradually increase toward
sunrise Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens with the
approach of the front. Expect southwest winds 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 22 KTs Sunday before shifting to the northwest late
in the day.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and late
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR