658
FXUS61 KILN 230152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
952 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold on
Sunday. A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on
Monday, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back
into the region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions
will then return for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat Advisory was allowed to expire at 8 pm. Have seen a few
showers this evening across northern Kentucky and the Lower
Scioto Valley of Ohio. They have been isolated and driven by
daytime heating and are dissipating with the setting of the sun.
For the rest of the night expect mid to high level clouds
across the CWA. Late at night, Midwest convection, or whatever
is left of it, will approach the northwest portion of the CWA.
Convection should be weaker, but enough for chance PoPs across
east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio. Tonight will be
another warm one, with lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Progressive mid
level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes Sunday. This will
drive a surface cold front thru the area Sunday afternoon. Pre-
frontal showers and embedded thunder in a weakening trends will
be possible Sunday morning.

An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the
late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold
front. Model solutions continue to trend faster with this front.
Moderate instability develops ahead of the front. Shear looks
to be unidirectional with bulk shear of 20-25 kts. A few of the
stronger storms could produce strong to damaging winds with
DCAPE values forecast to be 1000-1200 J/KG. This potential for
severe weather will generally be along and east of I-71.

Storm chances diminish from northwest to southeast late in the
day as drier air filters in from the northwest with the passage
of the front.

High temperatures Sunday will be tricky given the frontal
passage. Forecast highs to range from the mid 80s northwest to
near 90 southeast.

Northwest flow develops Sunday night with high pressure nosing
into the area offering cooler and drier conditions. Low
temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and dry air are forecast for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for showers begins late Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. Carrying likely to categorical pops for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with frontal passage. High pressure
settling over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Thursday
and Friday. The next front may bring a few more showers on
Saturday.

Temperatures fluctuating in relation to frontal position will begin
with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Monday, rising back into the
90s Tuesday under a surge of warm advection ahead of the first cold
front. Readings slip a few degrees to around 90 on Wednesday thanks
to cloud and precip along the front. Highs fall back to the 80s
Thursday in cold advection behind the front, before rising back into
the 90s Friday and Saturday in another round of warm advection ahead
of the second cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any cumulus will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating
shortly after 00Z. Expect some high clouds for the rest of the
evening, with the potential for an increase in clover cover
late tonight/early Sunday morning as leftover upstream
convection works east into the Ohio Valley. Cloud bases likely
lower later at night as well, but remain above 5k ft. Due to
uncertainty on how much convection is left, have continued VCSH
for now, but may have to include SHRA especially for
Dayton/Cincinnati terminals Sunday morning if confidence
increases in weakening convection holding together this far
east. Eventually, with daytime heating and a cold front
approaching, additional convection will refire by afternoon.
VCTS is included at all TAF sites for now. Based on timing,
KCMH/KLCK may have the best opportunity for thunderstorms mainly
17z-22z. Outside of any thunderstorms, southwest winds Sunday
may gust as high as 25 kt, then winds will shift to
west/northwest behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and late
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/AR
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...BPP