018
FXUS63 KILX 090715
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
215 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph could lead to
  blowing dust this afternoon into early evening.

- Comfortable temperatures will persist through about midweek
  before things turn hot and humid late in the week.

- Precipitation chances look slim the next 7 days, with only a few
  low-end chances (<20%) late in the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning just
north of Lake Huron with northwest flow over the Midwest states.
Surface ridging has started nosing into the middle Mississippi
Valley and will control the weather pattern through early week,
keeping things somewhat cooler than normal. Breezy northwest winds
become common this afternoon as the pressure gradient becomes
pinched between the encroaching high and a surface low to the
northeast. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to about 700 mb
developing by this afternoon, with momentum transfer winds as high
as 20-30 kts. The 09.00Z HREF has high chances for wind gusts in
excess of 25 mph north of a Havana to Champaign line, with
probabilities dropping below 40% for 30 mph or greater. Winds of
this magnitude caused issues with blowing dust late last week, and
with little or no rain since then similar conditions will likely
develop.

Ridging amplifies over the western CONUS going into Monday with a
few upper lows working to flatten the ridge as it spills into the
central CONUS. Flow aloft will become more zonal by Midweek with
another upper high building over the southwest US. Mid-level heights
will gradually rise as this ridge gets kicked eastward going into
next weekend, turning things hot and humid. Precipitation chances
look rather slim the next 7 days, though upper shortwave action
could push a few frontal systems through late in the week/weekend.
Details on these are still far from clarity, so for now held onto
the NBM`s occasional 20% precipitation chances.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front has pushed south through all TAF sites late this
evening with some pockets of 2-4k ft stratus behind it leading to
brief MVFR ceilings. Winds are generally out of the north and will
gradually back to northwest by later this morning. Wind speeds ramp
up between 16-18Z with occasional gusts of 20-25 kts expected
through the afternoon. Otherwise, mid to high clouds will stream
across the area through the period.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$