Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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412 FXUS63 KIWX 311923 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 323 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat slower trends for arrival of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will be the main concern. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. - Large temperature gradients possible due to precipitation and clouds Saturday and later this week, but overall still near or above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Next 12 to 24 hours will likely be dry for many areas with models continue to trend somewhat slower with onset of increasing moisture and lift. Some concern that best influx of moisture may not arrive till closer to 00Z Sun as the upper low and associated sfc reflection draw closer. Have slowed onset considerably through 18Z but maintained likely or categorical pops during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances still looking rather bleak but still maintained a mention. As mentioned by the overnight forecaster, highs tomorrow will be highly dependent on how fast the rain and clouds arrives. Have increased temps slightly westward but not getting to crazy at this point. Limited ridging will move in for Sunday and at least the first half of Monday before additional waves move towards the region with chances for showers and maybe a few storms once again. Confidence is low on how these chances evolve with timing of specific waves still varying in models. Greatest chances still reside with the main upper level low in the Plains that will deepen and move east towards the region mid week. No significant changes have been made in the forecast at this time due to the timing challenges noted. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will continue this forecast period as a ridge of high pressure slowly shifts east of the area. South-southeast return flow will continue on backside of this high pressure today, generally around 10 knots. High clouds will increase tonight downstream of an upper level disturbance that will make its way across Missouri. Better low level moisture return will initially be limited by southeast component of low level wind and overall weak magnitudes to the advective wind fields. Better moisture advection should not arrive at terminals until after 18Z Saturday afternoon in association with elevated warm frontal feature. Primarily dry conditions should continue at terminals through midday Saturday, with a ramping up of chances during mid-late afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but overall instability fields still appear quite weak suggesting only an isolated thunder potential. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Marsili