720
FXUS64 KJAN 191718 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Quiet morning across the area with increasing heights in the
mid/upper levels due to a sizable ridge building across the
southern/central plains. Flow around this ridge will push
southward deep layer dry air and a ribbon of close to 1.0 PWs
traversing the area. Conditions will continue to warm as we peak
in the 89-92 range which is roughly 5 degrees abv the norm.
Forecast elements are on track and only made minor tweaks with
newer guidance. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Today and Tonight: Patchy fog is still possible toward sunrise but
its coverage will be less this morning. It will be continued dry
with warmer than normal temperatures through tonight. Early morning
water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid level ridge just to
our northwest emanating from a 592dam high centered over southern
Texas. This ridge was still resulting in northwest flow aloft across
our region that was also continuing the feed of drier air aloft into
our CWA. Latest surface analysis still had a weak surface ridge
nosing into our CWA from the northeast. This surface ridge will
change little through the forecast period and will serve to keep the
Gulf closed. Ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant over
our region through tonight. This will help temperatures top out
warmer than normal and in the lower 90s this afternoon and hold
temperatures warmer than normal Friday morning; in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. /22/

Friday through next Wednesday...High pressure, both aloft and at the
surface, will reside across the forecast area through the majority
of the forecast period.  This will result in quiet weather across
the region through at least the upcoming weekend and beginning of
next week. Humid conditions will persist with dew points generally
mixing into the upper 60s to around 70 each day, as afternoon highs
and overnight lows remain at to just above normal for this time of
year.

As we move into the middle of next week, rain chances do return to
the forecast, particularly on Wednesday.  A trough is currently
advertised to shift east into and through the region during this
time.  This scenario will cause a frontal boundary to likewise shift
into and through the forecast area, bringing isolated to scattered
showers along with it Wednesday into Wednesday night. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Quiet TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing. Slight focus this
afternoon is the Few/Sct fair weather cu based at 4-6 kft. Look
for this to dissipate by 22-00z and a clear night to prevail.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      67  92  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     67  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       68  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    66  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/22/19