674
FXUS64 KJAN 151759
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The potential for heat stress will be the primary concern for today
with afternoon highs in the upper 90s with a few areas reaching low
100s. Heat indices up to 105 degrees will be possible across the
forecast area. Because of this, the limited heat risk graphic will
be maintained for the entire area today. Sfc high pressure ridging
will keep weather conditions quiet this morning as the overall
forecast remains on track. Global guidance continues to highlight a
disturbance in the southern Gulf. This disturbance, along with
increased moisture advection around the high, will help support
isolated showers and storms later this afternoon, especially for
areas east of I-55 where moisture is greatest. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today and tonight...

The primary concern in the short term will be the potential for
heat stress with temperatures in the upper 90s expected, with some
100s possible. Heat indices around 105 are possible and will
carry a limited heat risk areawide for Saturday into Sunday. Upper
ridging should keep conditions fairly quiet, however, a
disturbance beneath this ridge, along with increased moisture
advection around the high, will support isolated showers and
storms this afternoon and evening, especially east of I-55 where
moisture is greatest. Have added some low PoPs in this area to
capture this. Weak flow will limit organization and longevity,
thus storms will be pulsy in nature. Showers and storms should
taper off late evening with waning daytime heating, leading to an
otherwise quiet night./SAS/

Sunday through Wednesday: The ridge bringing unseasonable warmth
to our region will begin to shift eastward through early next
week, but not before one more day of hot conditions. Particularly
for areas north of I-20 where rain and clouds are less likely on
Sunday, temperatures may approach the triple digits. Fortunately,
dewpoints will be relatively lower in these areas, so heat indices
are only expected to be a few degrees higher than the
temperature. Still, there will be increased heat stress especially
given how early in the
Morning Update...

The potential for heat stress will be the primary concern for today
with afternoon highs in the upper 90s with a few areas reaching low
100s. Heat indices up to 105 degrees will be possible across the
forecast area. Because of this, the limited heat risk graphic will
be maintained for the entire area today. Sfc high pressure ridging
will keep weather conditions quiet this morning as the overall
forecast remains on track. Global guidance continues to highlight a
disturbance in the southern Gulf. This disturbance, along with
increased moisture advection around the high, will help support
isolated showers and storms later this afternoon, especially for
areas east of I-55  where moisture is greatest. /CR/
season it is for this warmth, so we`ll
continue to highlight heat stress concerns in our hazard graphics.

Meanwhile, S/SE low level flow west of the aforementioned ridge
will draw tropical moisture northward into the area through the
day Sunday, persisting through the first half of next week. At the
same time, increasing upper divergence associated with a
shortwave trough over Texas will support increasing potential for
rain showers and some thunderstorms, beginning over the southern
half of the area Sunday and spreading northward into Monday and
Tuesday. Within this regime, PWs are expected to surpass 2 in.
across most of the area and may approach 2.5 in. across south MS
and south LA, promoting potential for a few corridors of higher
rainfall amounts. For the time being there remains some spread
within the guidance as to where the heaviest rain is most likely
to occur and whether it will remain south of our area or extend
farther northward. This is a period we will keep a close eye on
for localized flooding potential and, depending on how things
evolve, may eventually need to advertise flooding threats.

It`s also worth noting, NHC is monitoring for potential tropical
development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week.
However, if this system develops, it would move westward and away
from our area.

Thursday and Friday: By Wednesday, the ridge will begin to build
back into our area, with the tropical moisture plume shifting
westward. Rain chances will trend back downward, with mainly dry
conditions expected for the end of the work week. However, there
will be a corresponding increase in temperatures with highs
returning to the mid to upper 90s again by next weekend. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail across central MS to start off the TAF
period. Skies will be clear through 20Z Saturday with quiet
conditions expected. Some clouds will begin to build into
southeastern portions of the area later this afternoon starting
around 21Z Saturday. A few popup showers and storms will be
possible mainly for areas east of I-55. Clouds will begin to clear
up by around 06Z Sunday. Winds will be generally from the south
around 5 mph. Quiet conditions will persist through 14Z Sunday with
clouds beginning to build from the southeast a little after 17Z
Sunday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  96  74  85 /  20  20  20  80
Meridian      73  97  73  87 /  20  30  30  60
Vicksburg     75  96  74  85 /  20  10  20  80
Hattiesburg   73  93  74  86 /  20  70  40  80
Natchez       72  94  72  85 /  20  30  20  90
Greenville    77  98  75  89 /  20  10  10  60
Greenwood     75  99  75  88 /  20  10  10  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS/DL/CR