184
FXUS64 KJAN 191656 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Forecast this morning is on track and only adjustments were to
tweak clouds, due to the thicker high clouds, and hourly temps
that are being affected by the clouds. As for PoPs, these were
solid as well with respect to timing/location. I did update with
the latest data which only changes things a small amount.
Generally speaking, Isolated type showers are possible during the
afternoon hours along and south of the Hwy 98/84 corridor. This is
within a moist low level advection zone and sufficient enough to
support showers. Thunder potential is very low in that area and
will not mention that. Any rainfall will be light and pretty
brief. The rest of the area will see increasing sunshine as high
clouds diminish along with some lower level cu. There will also be
a nice easterly breeze today. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today and Tonight...Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft,
centered east of the region, will both continue to build west into
the region.  This will result in easterly flow across the CWA, which
will continue to advect a slightly drier airmass into the forecast
area.  This will also cause any chance for showers this afternoon
and evening to be confined to far southern portions of the CWA.

High clouds will maintain their presence across much of the area
today, but a few peaks of sun will again be seen across the area
through the course of the day. Highs today will be a touch warmer as
they range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. For tonight, some high
clouds will linger across the area as lows range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s. /19/

Through Late Week...Anomalously strong 595 dam mid-level ridge
will have expanded from its origins over the mid-atlantic states
into much of the mid MS valley. The stout ridge will provide a
rather dry airmass aloft limiting the potential for storm coverage
as chances for isolated showers and storms will remain confined
to the afternoon as peak heating occurs and mainly focused along
our far southern counties. This pattern will repeat daily through
late week.

This Weekend into next Week...Ridging at the surface and aloft
will help mitigate rain chances as the more moist tropical airmass
will be in place further west southwest as the potential tropical
disturbance continues its track west through Mexico. An influx of
deep layer will result in dewpoints recovering into the high 60s
to low 70s by Saturday. We can expect to see seasonably warm temps
with mid 90s high temperatures expected through late week. It is
also worth noting that heat indices will near 105 degrees and
there will be a chance for triple digit temps this weekend into
next early week thus heat products will be likely heading into the
weekend. Looking ahead to next week week we can expect to see and
active tropics as another area of low pressure is forecasted to
form in the Southwestern portions of the Gulf Of Mexico following
tropical cyclone one. At this time it is unlikely that our area
sees any impacts as the system is forecasted to track west-
northwestward or northwestward./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail and it`s basically a wind forecast
with some higher clouds. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      91  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     91  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   90  72  92  72 /  30  10  10   0
Natchez       90  72  91  71 /  20   0   0   0
Greenville    92  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     91  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/KP/