440
FXUS64 KJAN 141509
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1009 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Quiet and dry conditions are expected through this morning as dry
northwest flow and sfc high pressure ridging continues to dominate
across the southeast US. Current morning GOES 16 visible satellite
imagery show a few clouds in Arkansas moving south towards northern
Mississippi. These clouds are expected to clear later this afternoon
leading to generally clear skies across our CWA. The combination of
clear skies and sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs
peak into the mid to upper 90s areawide. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today and tonight...The hot and dry conditions will continue
today, as surface high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow
continues. H500 heights will continue to increase across the region,
with hotter temperatures this afternoon. Highs today will mostly be
mid 90s. the dry conditions will continue tonight, with warmer
overnight lows in the low 70s./15/

Saturday through late next week...

Trends have been drier for this weekend as high pressure is slower
to exit, thus increasing confidence on heat for the area Sat/Sun.
Will continue to message a limited heat graphic for this time period
areawide with heat indices around 105 possible. With 850/925 temps
around 22/28, surface temperatures around 100 seem quite reasonable,
especially with the drier airmass and deep mixing potential.

By Sunday, high pressure begins to shift east enough to allow
moisture to wrap in across southern areas, introducing rain and
storm chances. Given this increased moisture, upper 90s and 100
temps will be confined to northern areas where drier air is in place
and better mixing is likely. That said, it will still be hot
everywhere, and increased moisture should keep heat indices in the
low 100s for much of the area. So, will continue to message limited
heat threat for Sunday as well.

As the high shifts further north and east early next week, flow will
invite greater moisture to push into our western portions. Axis of
moisture, denoted by PWAT in excess of 2 inches, will be over
western portions of the area Monday. Given such moisture, heavy
downpours are possible in this area. With that said, eastern areas
should remain under some influence of the high and should see less
of a tropical environment, thus lighter rain rates. The moisture
axis of greatest transport will shift over Texas as a tropical
disturbance in the west Gulf pushes into Mexico, aided by the
steering flow of the high. This disturbance is likely to stay south
and west of our area.

Late week is a bit uncertain, but there is indication of a rex
block setting up over the east CONUS. With this setup, dry air on
the backside of the low would limit rain and storm chances later
next week, especially further north. Confidence in this scenario
however is low at this time./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the period,
with mainly light and variable winds expected. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      97  71 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     93  70  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   97  72 100  73 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       92  70  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    95  73  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     95  72  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/SAS/15/CR