Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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532 FXUS64 KJAN 141720 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Quiet and dry conditions are expected through this morning as dry northwest flow and sfc high pressure ridging continues to dominate across the southeast US. Current morning GOES 16 visible satellite imagery show a few clouds in Arkansas moving south towards northern Mississippi. These clouds are expected to clear later this afternoon leading to generally clear skies across our CWA. The combination of clear skies and sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak into the mid to upper 90s areawide. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today and tonight...The hot and dry conditions will continue today, as surface high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow continues. H500 heights will continue to increase across the region, with hotter temperatures this afternoon. Highs today will mostly be mid 90s. the dry conditions will continue tonight, with warmer overnight lows in the low 70s./15/ Saturday through late next week... Trends have been drier for this weekend as high pressure is slower to exit, thus increasing confidence on heat for the area Sat/Sun. Will continue to message a limited heat graphic for this time period areawide with heat indices around 105 possible. With 850/925 temps around 22/28, surface temperatures around 100 seem quite reasonable, especially with the drier airmass and deep mixing potential. By Sunday, high pressure begins to shift east enough to allow moisture to wrap in across southern areas, introducing rain and storm chances. Given this increased moisture, upper 90s and 100 temps will be confined to northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is likely. That said, it will still be hot everywhere, and increased moisture should keep heat indices in the low 100s for much of the area. So, will continue to message limited heat threat for Sunday as well. As the high shifts further north and east early next week, flow will invite greater moisture to push into our western portions. Axis of moisture, denoted by PWAT in excess of 2 inches, will be over western portions of the area Monday. Given such moisture, heavy downpours are possible in this area. With that said, eastern areas should remain under some influence of the high and should see less of a tropical environment, thus lighter rain rates. The moisture axis of greatest transport will shift over Texas as a tropical disturbance in the west Gulf pushes into Mexico, aided by the steering flow of the high. This disturbance is likely to stay south and west of our area. Late week is a bit uncertain, but there is indication of a rex block setting up over the east CONUS. With this setup, dry air on the backside of the low would limit rain and storm chances later next week, especially further north. Confidence in this scenario however is low at this time./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Aside from a few high cirrus clouds across a few northern TAF sites (GLH & GWO), weather conditions will be quiet through the entire TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 71 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 20 Vicksburg 70 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 72 100 73 95 / 0 10 0 30 Natchez 70 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 73 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 72 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/SAS/CR