Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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518 FXUS64 KJAN 190200 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 900 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Rest of tonight... A quiet night is on tap. The Gulf Coast region remains in northwest drying flow, with drier air analyzed in GOES East total precipitable water (PWs) imagery & regional 00Z soundings (1.2-1.4 inches). Sfc ridge of high pressure will keep light flow & favorable radiational cooling environment around overnight. Lows will be more seasonable north of I-20 (62-66F) & seasonably warm along & south of I-20 (67-71F). With drier air mixing down into the low- levels from the north, this should limit fog coverage to being confined to low-lying, sheltered areas & river valleys. There is a low to medium chance of patchy to localized areas of fog but dense fog a low chance. Kept mention of fog. HREF probs remain too low (<30%) & confined to extreme southern corridors of Hwy 84 to Hwy 98 corridors for any mention of dense fog in the HWO. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Tonight through Tomorrow Night The main challenge will onset, coverage, and thickness of low- lying stratus and fog development throughout the CWA. That being said we`ve had some dry air mix into the area mostly off to the northeastern most quadrant, which should inhibit any low-lying stratus development in that area. The rest of the CWA will see areas of patchy fog with denser development in low elevation sites along shallow river valleys. In any event, hydrometeors are expected to burn off by mid morning across all sites. Other weather parameters look to be typical, following with diurnal trends. Highest wind speeds look to be under 10kts and generally northerly, although the direction may be variant with light winds and a ridge that extends from the surface through to 300mb that is slowly building throughout the period. Precipitation chances remain near 0% with the isentropic lift mechanism eroding away early this morning, being relegated along the MS/AL/FL gulf coast. Lows in the mid 60s and highs are expected to be the high 80s. Friday through Tuesday... Ridging will continue to entrench itself across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and as the cut-off low over the Carolinas (the remnants from an unnamed tropical system that moved through earlier this week) begins to fill and push eastward; we will see a shifting of the ridge axis to a more positive tilt. This will result in tame conditions across the region for the remainder of the period, with rain chances rebounding into the 20% range Wednesday afternoon as the ridge completes its traversal across our area and a trough beginning to meander over from the west. Relative humidity values are not expected to change much so expect a more narrow diurnal swing in our temperatures: Highs in the mid to high 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s./OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 835 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions will predominate through the TAF period. Brief localized fog & low stratus cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning, but confidence at any specific site is too low to include in TAF in the 00Z TAF cycle. Any localized flight restrictions that develop will lift mid-morning after 19/15-16Z Thursday. Winds will be near calm tonight & northerly Thursday, generally less than 10mph. /DC/DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 65 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 69 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 71 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 70 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 64 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/OAJ/DL