Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
817 FXUS64 KJAN 240554 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Little adjustment was needed this evening to the going forecast with only better agreement with near term (1-3 hr) temperature/dewpoint forecasts tweaked to better mirror observations. A few mostly high clouds reside across the area, with a little better coverage north of I-20. Patchy, shallow fog will be possible tonight, particularly in the Pinebelt south of the thick cloud cover and within deeper humidity. Lows tonight fall to around 70 F for most. /86/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today through Tomorrow Morning... The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal. Heat indices are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s F this afternoon. Overnight into the early morning hours temperatures are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with RH values in the upper 90% it will feel uncomfortably muggy. Tomorrow through Thursday... Tomorrow afternoon we will have a front drop down into the forecast area from the northwest which will assist in bring precipitation to the state of Mississippi and surrounding region. This front is expected to enter the region late tomorrow morning from the northwest, bringing rain chances (20-35%) along the boundary. This system is expected to slowly amble its way through the region, and stall out through the central portions of the region; as the 500/700mb low becomes cutoff from supporting upper level dynamics. Along areas of highest confluence, expect diurnally enhanced instability to allow for embedded thunderstorms mainly along a NE-SW corridor bisecting the Jackson area of responsibility. Elsewhere widespread light rain showers are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Consequently our gradient will measurably tighten, delivering higher wind speeds (10kt northerlies gusting up to 15kts). Unsurprisingly this front will bring with it attendant lower temperatures, cooling us from the unseasonable highs we`ve had for the last week or so, with highs in the mid 80s F tomorrow trending downwards 3-5F daily throughout the period. Thursday through Monday... The late week and weekend period will be characterized by an unorthodox Fujiwhara-like intercyclonic setup. While the low associated with the aforementioned stalled out frontal boundary lingers in western TN/central AR, another cyclonic feature, tropical in nature, will make its way ashore near the Florida panhandle from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring moisture to the area by way of the flow around the Tropical System pinwheeling around where it will be further drawn in by the stalled out low in western TN. Altogether this won`t change the surface meteorological situation all to much from the weather earlier in the week, however these highest/heaviest rain chances will be relegated to the eastern periphery of the region. Any shift in the projected centers of these lows could shift the main rain corridor east, out of the CWA; or west, through central MS. Expect rain chances of around 50% throughout the zone for the remainder of the period with possible embedded thunderstorm activity, where isolated areas of higher lift coalesce. Wind speeds look to pick up with this enhanced gradient with southerly winds gusting into the low 20kts and thunderstorms enhancing these speeds with precipitable mixing up into the mid 30kts. Highs should be in the mid 80s F and lows in the low 60S F for the remainder of the week./OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out closer to daybreak, mainly across south MS and central LA. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS with a VFR cloud deck. By the afternoon and continuing into Tuesday evening, showers and isolated storms will become more numerous across the area, with brief ceiling and visby reductions possible in heavier rain. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 69 83 65 / 40 60 50 40 Meridian 93 68 83 65 / 20 50 70 60 Vicksburg 89 67 84 64 / 40 40 30 20 Hattiesburg 94 70 89 69 / 10 20 60 60 Natchez 90 68 85 64 / 30 40 40 20 Greenville 86 65 80 61 / 40 20 30 20 Greenwood 88 65 83 62 / 50 30 30 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 86/OAJ/DL