301
FXUS64 KJAN 190521 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Rest of tonight...

A quiet night is on tap. The Gulf Coast region remains in northwest
drying flow, with drier air analyzed in GOES East total precipitable
water (PWs) imagery & regional 00Z soundings (1.2-1.4 inches).
Sfc ridge of high pressure will keep light flow & favorable
radiational cooling environment around overnight. Lows will be
more seasonable north of I-20 (62-66F) & seasonably warm along &
south of I-20 (67-71F). With drier air mixing down into the low-
levels from the north, this should limit fog coverage to being
confined to low-lying, sheltered areas & river valleys. There is
a low to medium chance of patchy to localized areas of fog but
dense fog a low chance. Kept mention of fog. HREF probs remain
too low (<30%) & confined to extreme southern corridors of Hwy 84
to Hwy 98 corridors for any mention of dense fog in the HWO.
Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Tonight through Tomorrow Night

The main challenge will onset, coverage, and thickness of low-
lying stratus and fog development throughout the CWA. That being
said we`ve had some dry air mix into the area mostly off to the
northeastern most quadrant, which should inhibit any low-lying
stratus development in that area. The rest of the CWA will see
areas of patchy fog with denser development in low elevation sites
along shallow river valleys. In any event, hydrometeors are
expected to burn off by mid morning across all sites.

Other weather parameters look to be typical, following with
diurnal trends. Highest wind speeds look to be under 10kts and
generally northerly, although the direction may be variant with
light winds and a ridge that extends from the surface through to
300mb that is slowly building throughout the period. Precipitation
chances remain near 0% with the isentropic lift mechanism eroding
away early this morning, being relegated along the MS/AL/FL gulf
coast. Lows in the mid 60s and highs are expected to be the high
80s.

Friday through Tuesday...

Ridging will continue to entrench itself across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley and as the cut-off low over the Carolinas
(the remnants from an unnamed tropical system that moved through
earlier this week) begins to fill and push eastward; we will see a
shifting of the ridge axis to a more positive tilt. This will
result in tame conditions across the region for the remainder of
the period, with rain chances rebounding into the 20% range
Wednesday afternoon as the ridge completes its traversal across
our area and a trough beginning to meander over from the west.
Relative humidity values are not expected to change much so expect
a more narrow diurnal swing in our temperatures: Highs in the mid
to high 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

With the exception of a brief period of MVFR/IFR vsby cntrl and
south 09Z-13Z, VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail
through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      67  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     66  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       67  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    65  90  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/OAJ/22