Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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492 FXUS62 KJAX 190543 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Quick update to add a High Surf Advisory for the NE FL beaches as latest buoys reports at 41070 and 41117 off the NE FL coastline have now reached 9 feet, so this supports surf/breakers of 5-7 ft that will likely last through Thursday Night. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Strong onshore/Easterly flow will continue through tonight with mainly scattered light to moderate showers moving onshore at times, although occasional slugs of deeper moisture will bring brief periods of heavy rainfall and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, but overall storm chances remain low through tonight over inland areas and will likely mainly be seen tonight over the Atlantic Coastal waters and possibly coming onshore at times. Sustained Easterly winds will remain in the 15-25mph with gusts into the 30-40 mph range along the Atlantic Coast, just below Wind Advisory headlines, and will push inland at these levels during the daytime hours and mix down with any shower activity that develops. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and around 90F over far inland areas. Winds diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow will remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas at least as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns River Basin through the night. Lows temps will fall into the lower 70s across inland areas, with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal areas warm and muggy in the middle to upper 70s, otherwise low temps in the next 24 hours may actually occur during rain cooled shower activity for most location along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure will be centered to the northeast through this period, continuing the prolonged period of onshore flow. Waves of low pressure will move through this flow, producing enhanced chances for precipitation. The strongest of these waves will move across the area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. During the day times on Thursday and Friday, there will be a chance for a few storms with diurnal heating. During the nights, convective potential will be minimal. Highs will be below normal due to the onshore flow, while this same flow will keep readings above normal at night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The high will build more toward the east northeast Saturday into Saturday night. This will result in a more southeast to south flow. This change in flow will result in warmer temperatures, and greater convective chances, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. The high will move more to the east on Sunday, yielding a mostly southerly flow. This will help produce an even warmer day on Sunday, with above normal convective chances occurring. A weak frontal boundary will move south southeast across the area Monday into Tuesday. The resultant flow will be from the southwest. This will keep temperatures above normal, with these warmer readings pushing all the way to the coast. Convective chances will continue to run above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Numerous light to moderate showers currently impacting the NE FL Coastal TAF sites with TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in shower activity that will last through 09-10Z, otherwise expect this activity to fade somewhat towards morning with all TAF sites generally remaining VFR with widely scattered shower (VCSH) activity through the entire period. Some increase in coastal shower/isolated storm activity possible this evening in the 00-06Z time frame but will hold off on introducing more TEMPO groups at this time. Otherwise the gusty Easterly winds will continue through the period increasing to 15-20G25-30 knots during the daytime hours at all TAF sites in the 14Z-02Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Small Craft Advisories will continue through Thursday with East winds in the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts to 30 knots at times. Models still on track with inverted surface trough under area of low pressure aloft pushing into the FL East Coast Atlantic waters Thursday Night and/or Early Friday which will likely continue strong onshore flow at Small Craft Advisory levels with low chances of potential Gale Force winds if an organized low pressure center can develop. Winds will then shift to the Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below headline levels. Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 4-6 ft Today and Thursday, but will need to keep an eye on local surf/beach reports today for potential high surf advisory for surf/breakers of 7 ft or higher. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 69 90 69 / 30 20 20 20 SSI 85 75 87 77 / 50 40 50 60 JAX 87 74 87 73 / 40 40 70 50 SGJ 87 76 86 76 / 50 70 70 60 GNV 91 72 89 71 / 30 30 60 30 OCF 90 73 91 73 / 40 30 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$