609
FXUS62 KJAX 221058
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
658 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)

Light fog development early this morning will be patchier in
nature compared to the last few mornings and favor inland regions,
west of I-95.

The dry weather pattern, dictated by an abnormally dry airmass,
continues today under the influence of dry northerly flow and a
surface weakening surface ridge of high pressure. That high will
slide to the east today allowing winds to swing easterly by
tonight. Showers will be focused mainly over the coastal Atlantic
waters along a coastal trough but, like yesterday, a few showers
may advect into portions of the Flagler county coast. Otherwise,
the stable airmass will keep rain chances nil across the rest of
the area. Clear, calm conditions tonight will lend the potential
for patchy inland fog and locally dense fog may develop.

Slight bump in temperatures today amid the drier airmass and ridging
aloft. Inland areas will make a run toward 90F while onshore flow
will keep the coastal areas in the mid 80s. Under clear skies
tonight, lows will fall toward the upper 60s and low 70s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The dry pattern continues during the first couple of days of the
upcoming week with high pressure over the region. Light easterly-
southeasterly winds through the period as the high pressure
begins to shift towards the east. Early morning fog may develop
during the early morning hours for far inland locations with clear
skies and weak overnight winds. Temperature highs for in the mid
to upper 80s along the coast, with highs in the lower 90s for
inland locations. Overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s
for locations across SE GA and in the lower 70s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Guidance continues trending towards the development of a low
pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico during the later half of
the upcoming week, with NHC now showing 70% confidence of
development during the next 7 days. The exact path of any system
that may development will be contingent on an upper trough which
is expected to develop and trek eastward from the central CONUS.
This trough would influence whether the system takes a more
northward or northeastern path, leaving the extent of any local
impacts from this system still uncertain.

Be sure to restock supply kits and review family evacuation plans.
Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Other than the usual early morning MVFR fog at VQQ, VFR conds and
light winds at all TAF sites as shower activity over the Atlantic
remains south of the SGJ TAF site and will remain that way through
the day as Northeast winds increase today but at lower speeds
than yesterday and slightly drier airmass in the lower levels will
keep diurnal Cu fields mainly SCT in the 2500-4000 ft range
through the afternoon hours. Near calm winds develop after sunset
tonight and expect fog to be a bigger issue late tonight with IFR
conds likely at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12Z time frame, along with MVFR
vsbys at JAX/CRG more likely in the 10-12Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure slides
into the waters from the north. A weak pressure pattern will
continue through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers
to the east northeast. During the second half of next week, an
area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop
into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the
potential tropical disturbance next week.

RIP CURRENTS...Despite easing onshore flow, lingering surf around
3-5 feet will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area
beaches today. Mellowing surf and lighter winds will continue to
lower risk through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow
will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Elevated tide is expected
along the southeast GA coast but it is unlikely to reach Minor
Flood levels. As such, the previous Coastal Flood Advisory for
Camden and Glynn county has been cancelled. Minor tidal flooding
remains a concern for the Atlantic beaches of northern Florida
and the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are likely to continue
minor flood within the St Johns River and its tributaries into
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  84  73  86  74 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  88  71  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  86  73  88  74 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  90  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  91  70  92  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ033-
     038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$