900
FXUS62 KJAX 212301
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
701 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will stretch down the east coast and across the area
Tonight. Skies along the NE FL coast will be partly cloudy,
otherwise skies will trend toward clear. Temperatures will have a
broad range Tonight, due to onshore flow across the relatively
warmer coastal waters. Lows in the mid 60s will be common inland,
and in the lower to mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.

Coastal Flood Advisory to continue through at least Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through Monday with PWAT values measuring between
0.9 and 1.6 inches. Prevailing flow will be primarily out of the
north and northwest as high pressure gradually shifts more towards
the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along
Flagler and St Johns Counties through this period with a chance
for patchy early morning fog to develop over inland areas. High
temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of
next week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the
upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as
high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts
about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased
chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential
tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 60%
chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the
precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments
remain ambiguous at this time. Daily high temperatures will
experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max
temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the
forecast period.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through at least 06z. Fog is
expected to develop during the overnight, and should produce a
period of restrictions at most TAF sites. At this time, looks like
too much wind for fog production at KSSI and KSGJ. Once the morning
fog lifts, prevailing VFR conditions expected for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of
northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small
craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern
will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as
high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk for area beaches today becoming Moderate
overnight and into Sunday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  85  73  86 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  67  88  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  72  86  74  88 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  66  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  91  72  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$