457
FXUS62 KJAX 131715
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
115 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No major updates needed on the forecast this morning, scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
along the east coast and over north central Florida. High
temperatures inland will reach the lower 90s, with slightly cooler
temperatures along the coast. Heat indices will climb to the lower
100s in some locations in NE FL this afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The weak low pressure will move offshore by the early daylight
hours today. As a result, breezy northeasterly onshore flow will
become established, leading to gusts of up to 20 mph possible
mainly along coastal locations and the St Johns River basin. The
frontal boundary from the past couple of days will start to make
its way southward with the departure of the low pressure.
Remaining tropical moisture over the area will allow for some showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours along the coast and
eastward towards US-301 along north central Florida. With the
onshore flow, temperatures along the coast will remain in the
upper 80s, while inland areas will temperature highs from the low
90s in SE GA and NE FL, with warmer temperatures likely over far
inland NE FL. By the evening hours, lows will dip to the lower 70s
and the mid to upper 70s for the coast.

A stalled front over the waters will allow for showers and
thunderstorms over the waters through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The surface low that originated over the Gulf of Mexico will be
well off the Carolina coast by late Friday with occluded front
just south of I-10. Strong surface high pressure centered over
the Great Lakes will extend southward into the Mid South and
northern Georgia while the upper level ridge builds into the
region. This regime will keep a east-northeast flow over the
region. The highest moisture content will stay in place south of
I-10 allowing for scattered to numerous showers with embedded
afternoon thunderstorms Friday. North of I-10 the moisture content
is considerably less with precipitable water value`s between 1.25
to 1.5 inches while south of I-10 values will be 1.5 to 1.8
inches. Hence the stratification of POPs with highest chances over
north central FL at around 60 percent with 30-50 percent POPs
across most areas south of I-10. The highest rainfall totals and
threat for localized flooding will be over Marion county and
southern Flagler counties. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s
inland near 90 at the immediate beaches. Lows during this period
are forecast to be in the lower 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s
at the coast. Temperatures will briefing heat back up into the mid
to upper 90s (near 100 in inland SE GA) on Saturday as the front
passes to our south, lowering precipitation chances for Georgia,
however scattered thunderstorm potential will remain over NE FL
with numerous showers and storms north central Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level ridge will remain entrenched over the region on
Sunday and Monday. This favors more typical diurnal
convection later into the weekend and early next week with an
easterly flow on tap. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
expected across SE GA and scattered showers and storms over
NE FL with storms more widespread across north central Florida.
The easterly flow remains in place Tuesday and Wednesday where
similar highest chances of diurnal storms will be over northeast
Florida and with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
over southeast Georgia. The rest of the period will have near

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Scattered showers will be moving through NE FL and SE GA this
afternoon, therefore have places VCSH in all the sites, with GNV
having the highest chance for VCTS. Gusty easterly winds will calm
after sunset, with VFR conditions expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A weak tropical low will shift offshore by the early morning hours
and slowly organize offshore of the coast through the rest of
this week. See the latest NHC outlook for details on the low.
Breezy east to northeast winds over the local waters as high
pressure remains to the north of the area. A stalled front over
the waters will allow for showers and thunderstorms over the
waters through Friday. Stronger high pressure will build south
from Eastern great lakes on Saturday and push the frontal boundary
south of the local waters with decreasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Light easterly winds Saturday will become breezy
on Sunday into early next week as the high builds down the eastern
seaboard and then shifts northeast of the region next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for all area beaches
today as breezy east- northeast winds will continue through the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  96  72  99 /  10  10   0  10
SSI  76  89  76  94 /  20  20   0  20
JAX  73  93  72  97 /  20  20   0  30
SGJ  75  91  73  93 /  30  40  10  50
GNV  73  94  71  97 /  30  40  10  50
OCF  73  94  73  95 /  70  50  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$