Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
407 FXUS62 KJAX 141826 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf An area of weak low pressure has developed over the Gulf Stream off the east coast of FL today. This low will enhance ENE flow shifting the Atlantic sea breeze further inland this afternoon. The late start to convection today has allowed for temperatures to soar into the low to upper 90s and heat indices approaching Heat Adv criteria. High DCAPE over our inland areas and a moist airmass (PWATs ~ 2 in) will promote some stronger wet microbursts with gusty winds to 40-60 mph possible and localized flooding. The best chance for isolated strong/severe storms will be mainly where the sea breezes collide between US 301 and I-75 corridors late this afternoon into evening. The low will gradually shift westward toward central/north-central FL tonight into early Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Low pressure over the area Tuesday will shift to the west Wednesday out into the northern Gulf. PWAT values over the area will be highest over northeast Florida and along the coast by the afternoon, providing enough moisture for localized heavy rainfall. Winds coming in off the Atlantic will help push afternoon sea- breeze convergence towards I-75 where a few stronger storms could start to develop in the afternoon and evening time frame. High daytime temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous days, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s over southeast Georgia and upper 80s to low 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s area wide, staying slightly warmer in coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure builds in from the east and sticks around through the end of the period as low pressure in the Gulf moves further west. Plenty of moisture over the area and diurnal heating with winds mostly from a southerly direction will help continue the afternoon rain and storms trend. Temperatures will slowly increase into the weekend with temperatures above the seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Isolated showers and storms have begun to develop along the Atlantic sea breeze currently over JAX. Winds have shifted to ENE for coastal TAF sites at around 10 kts. The sea breezes will continue to shift inland and likely collide between US 301 and I75 corridors. Have TEMPOs in for stronger storms between 18-23Z for breezy winds, MVFR CIGS and possible IFR VSBYS with heavy rainfall. Rainfall chances fade after sunset (00Z) and will leave VFR conds with lingering clouds through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak area of low pressure has developed over the Gulf Stream today and slowly shifts westward into the coastal waters tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low shifts westward across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, with low pressure potentially strengthening later in the week near the northern Gulf coast. NHC has highlighted the northern Gulf coast for a low chance of tropical/subtropical development for this week. Prevailing northeasterly winds today will shift to southerly by late Tuesday as the low shifts west of our local waters, with south- southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to Caution levels near shore on Wednesday afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week as southerly winds prevail. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft today. Threat begins to increase Tuesday into mid-week as flow slowly becomes more onshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 94 73 93 / 40 60 10 60 SSI 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 10 50 JAX 75 92 75 92 / 20 70 10 80 SGJ 75 87 75 90 / 20 70 20 80 GNV 72 92 72 92 / 40 80 20 90 OCF 72 90 73 90 / 50 90 30 100 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$