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000
FXUS62 KJAX 271920
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
320 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Pre-frontal broken clusters of showers and isolated t`storms will
continue to move west-east across the local forecast area through
early evening. A few strong storms will remain possible through
late afternoon, capable of gusty winds near 40 mph and locally
heavy rainfall, but the stronger dynamics have lifted north of
the area with most convection being enhanced now by diurnal
instability and boundary/cell mergers, thus severe thunderstorm
potential has decreased.

Water vapor and satellite imagery showed much drier air with
subsidence invading our far western GA zones with PWAT < 1 inch,
with precip on track to tapper off across SE GA through the next
few hours as drier continues to invade from the west. Lingering
showers will linger across NE FL into the evening, with a
continued chance of an isolated t`storm through early Saturday
morning, roughly from Gainesville to St. Augustine, where low
level instability (dew pts near 70) will coincide on the southern
side of the stalling surface front across south GA/NE FL late
tonight with a lingering mid level trough axis over the eastern
GOMEX providing some weak upper level lift.

Drier air will filter across SE GA trailing the frontal passage
tonight with low temps falling into the mid/upper 60s inland with
similar dew pts, back near climo values inland. There could also
be some patchy ground fog especially across the Suwannee River
Valley toward sunrise near the stalling front where recent
rainfall occurred. Closer to the coast, min temps in the upper 60s
to near 70 are expected under WSW winds.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The surface front will lose southward momentum and linger across
north Florida Saturday as the upper level trough axis elongates
across the deep south. Late Saturday into Sunday, a broad upper
level low is expected to form within the base of the upper trough
axis across the eastern GOMEX as the diffuse trough axis lifts
northward across SE GA and moisture increases from the SSE around
the eastern periphery of the upper level low. This pattern will
bring mostly dry conditions for SE GA and generally north of the
I-10 corridor where drier WNW post-frontal flow will advect drier
air, while lingering frontal forcing and deeper moisture across
our southern FL zones (roughly from Gainesville to St. Augustine
southward). As the lingering trough axis lifts northward into
Sunday and deeper moisture returns across the area under ESE flow,
convection is expected to develop along the dominant east coast
sea breeze front by early afternoon and shift inland toward the
I-75 corridor into the late afternoon/early evening where a sea
breeze merger is expected. With cooler temps aloft (-9 to -11 deg
C) near the upper level low, steeper lapse rates Sunday afternoon
will bring an increased potential for a few stronger storms near
boundary mergers. Resultant convection Sunday evening will fade
with loss of diurnal instability and weakening low level
convergence, but moist SE flow under the meandering upper level
trough will maintain a low chance of mainly coastal showers
through Sunday night.

Temperatures will trend near normal for highs Saturday in the
upper 80s to near 90, then temps warm a bit inland Sunday into the
low 90s to the mid/upper 80s as moisture increases under SE flow.
Low temps will trend near to below normal across inland SE GA in
the low/mid 60s to near normal in the upper 60s to low 70s toward
the Atlantic coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The general pattern indicated mid/upper level ridging across the
mid-Atlantic region while an elongated trough axis lingers across
the the FL peninsula with another potential closed upper level
low forming within the mean trough mid/late week. Models diverge
on where this upper level low forms, which will influence the
amount of available moisture and upper level lift for local
precipitation potential and intensity. In the lower levels,
surface high pressure will build to the NE of the region Mon-Tue
with a dominant east coast sea breeze regime, and coastal troughs
forming east of the FL peninsula. Late Tue into Wed, a stronger
coastal trough feature may form near the FL Atlantic coast, with
PWAT increasing to above 1.8 inches through Fri.

Consensus guidance favored a continuation of generally diurnally
enhanced east coast sea breeze regime convection, moving inland
from the Atlantic coast through early afternoon, then convection
expanding in coverage and intensity as it tracks westward into the
afternoons. Given the position of the upper level trough/closed
upper low, lift and cooler temps aloft could enhance diurnal
convection with strong potential if the low is just west over over
the local area, and this looks possible on Monday. If the
mid/upper level low is to the east, a more subsident pattern would
tend to limit storm strength and coverage, which looks like a
potential scenario Wed-Thu. Resultant forecast advertises
generally 20-50% rain chances, lowest across our NW GA zones with
highest across our SSE FL zones.

Temperatures will trend near to below normal during the extended
period under the lingering upper level low and general onshore
easterly flow at the surface. Highs will range from near 90 well
inland to the mid/upper 80s near the coast. Low temperatures will
range in the mid/upper 60s well inland to low 70s coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the local Atlantic
waters ahead of a cold front through this evening. Continued to
initialize the forecast with Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions The front will stall across north Florida waters early
Saturday. Weak high pressure will build north then northeast of
the local waters Sunday through Memorial Day with a return of
onshore winds early next week. A general easterly flow regime is
expected through mid- week with coastal showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Saturday. Elevated rip current
risk Memorial Day through next week as onshore flow develops.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  89  64  90  66 /  10   0   0  20  10
SSI  71  85  73  87  74 /  20   0  10  20  20
JAX  68  90  69  89  70 /  20  10  10  30  20
SGJ  71  88  70  87  71 /  30  20  10  30  20
GNV  67  90  65  92  67 /  20  20   0  30  10
OCF  68  90  67  92  68 /  30  20  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&