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000
FXUS62 KJAX 071959
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR FLAGLER INTO THIS
EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The remaining focus for storm coverage will be Flagler county
into this evening as passing storms interact with the pinned
Atlantic sea breeze. These storms could be strong to marginally
severe and produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. Further north, drier air has mixed down squashing much
of the convection for this afternoon. Showers and storms will
slowly subside this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

An upper low over New England will slowly retrograde westward,
weaken, and then shift northeastward by Friday night. At the
surface, a slow-moving cold front will sink southward into SE GA
on Thursday and then weakens further as it shifts southward into
NE FL on Friday. West-southwest flow persists ahead of the front
pinning the Atlantic sea breeze to the I-95 corridor each
afternoon. The frontal boundary will serve as the main lifting
mechanism and focus for storms on Thursday and Friday. The
anticipated sea breeze collision along the I-95 corridor will
provide the secondary focus for storms. Drier air will mix down
into the mid and lower levels increasing DCAPE values to around
700-900 J/kg. This could result in a few storms producing strong
to severe gusts in SE GA on Thursday. Temperatures will be around
seasonable with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The weakened frontal boundary will stall across central FL on
Saturday while high pressure to the north builds eastward into the
Atlantic. As southerly flow develops on Sunday, the stalled front
will regain motion and lift northward as a warm front ahead of a
cold front approaching from the northwest. Scattered shower and
storms will be limited to NE FL on Saturday then spreads northward
into SE GA Sunday as moisture/instability recovers. Breezy
offshore winds and increasing storm coverage are anticipated early
next week ahead of the aforementioned front.

Temperatures will be slightly above climo through early next week
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Convection starting to initiate across NE FL along a line from
GNV-SGJ as Satl Imagery shows Towering Cumulus and possible TSRA
to develop the next several hours and reach the East Coast sea
breeze front near SGJ by 21-23Z. Further north across the JAX
metro area, lower TSRA chances have led to shorter TEMPO groups
for TSRA mainly in the 21-23Z time frame before pushing offshore.
For now have continued to leave TSRA out of SSI forecast, with
just VCSH as a brief shower possible along sea breeze just east of
the TAF location. Following convection early this evening, just
expecting some lingering mid/high VFR convective cloud debris as
SW winds remain slightly elevated and Hi-Res models continue to
struggle with low stratus development pushing off the Gulf and
into NE FL towards sunrise so have kept any IFR/MVFR clouds SCT
from 08-14Z time frame with some light MVFR fog possible at
GNV/VQQ. Any convection from the next frontal boundary on Thursday
appears to occur after the current TAF period, so have added a
line with increasing W-SW winds around 10 knots and developing SCT
cumulus in the 2500-3500 ft range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Southwesterly flow will continue through the week, then shift to
easterly this weekend following a frontal passage. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be possible over the local waters each
day this week. The then front stalls just south of the area this
weekend as weak high pressure builds to the north and then
northeast. Winds shift to southerly Sunday into Monday as the
frontal boundary lifts northward as a warm front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk will continue today for
the northeast Florida beaches, with a low risk for southeast
Georgia.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  91  68  89 /  10  50  40  20
SSI  72  89  71  85 /   0  60  40  30
JAX  69  91  70  89 /  10  40  30  60
SGJ  71  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  60
GNV  69  90  70  91 /  10  20  10  60
OCF  70  88  70  90 /  10  10   0  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$