629
FXUS62 KJAX 262344
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
744 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Diurnally enhanced sea and river breeze convection was already
popping across our SE FL counties, with west coast sea breeze
convection nudging slowly inland toward Suwannee and Gilchrist
counties, while a few airmass showers were developing near the FL
I-10 corridor near a lingering surface boundary that extends
generally W-E across the area.

Mid and high clouds continued to thin across NE FL from JAX to
Gainesville, with convective temps rising to 88 deg shortly which
will spark additional convection growth near low level boundaries.
The best instability, moisture and low level forcing will focus
across interior NE FL during the mid to late afternoon, with slow
storm motion and high PWAT contributing to the localized heavy
rainfall potential and minor flood threat. Continue to expect
generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall in convection today, but
localized amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible as evidenced
over the past few days.

Satellite does show the sliver of drier air near the Ocmulgee
River and Altamaha River basins limiting convective coverage and
growth early this afternoon, however, there is a surface front
just north across central GA noted in the visible satellite
looping with a shear axis. Anticipate diurnal convection across SE
GA will form into the afternoon, but with less coverage given the
drier air trying to invade from the west and thus nudge rain
chances downward to 30-50% through 00z. Given satellite trends,
there could be a sea breeze and frontal boundary merger later into
the evening toward the Altamaha River basin with resultant
showers and storms drifting toward the Golden Isles, and thus
maintained 40-50% rain chances 00z-04z for these zones. Given some
drier air across SE GA, isolated stronger storms capable of wet
downbursts and gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible.

Precipitation will slowly tapper off after sunset, but with slow
westerly storm motion, stratiform rainfall and lingering debris
clouds will be slow to depart, especially across NE FL. Mostly dry
conditions are expected after midnight, with a low chance of
mainly a coastal showers near the meandering frontal axis toward
daybreak. Patchy inland fog and low stratus are expected,
especially where heavy rain recently fell.

Temperatures will near 90 today (near to just below normal) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 70s tonight (near normal values).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Pattern of diurnal bouts of showers and thunderstorms with
stronger developments forming along the advancing sea breeze
boundaries, outflow boundaries, and along areas of collision
during the afternoon and evening hours will continue through the
weekend. Moist southwesterly flow will have shifted to become more
out of the north and northeast as remnants of the decaying dry
frontal boundary to the north moves east and south over Atlantic
waters and will act in altering the steering flow over the region.
Potential for slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall leading
to localized flooding during this period with PWAT values expected
to range between 1.9 and 2.4 inches during this period. High
temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s for
inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s. Heat index values
will rise to be above 100 degrees during this period with a
potential for heat advisory conditions on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Steering flow is expected to to become less defined next week as
high pressure over the Atlantic lifts off to the north. Daily
bouts of convection will continue through this period with
stronger developments expected to occur along sea breeze and
outflow boundaries and along areas of collision. High temperatures
for the beginning of next week will be close to the seasonal
average with max temps reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas of RA are lingering around northeast FL terminals, which
should dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. TSRA north of SSI as of
2330Z may drift southward towards the vicinity of the same
terminal through about 01-02Z, though is expected to weaken over
the next few hours. TEMPO for TSRA or at least SHRA will be
possible however through the next few hours at SSI. VFR will then
prevail for most sites overnight, though periods of MVFR are
possible for VQQ and GNV, with IFR not fully ruled out as well.

Convection is likely to affect all terminals Saturday, with the
sea breeze expected to move through all coastal sites. TEMPO
groups with further timing and magnitude of impacts to be added as
we get closer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Weak surface front will linger over the local waters today and
Saturday with light southerly winds becoming onshore in the
afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. The front
will shift south of the local waters late Sunday into Monday, with
an increase in northeast winds as high pressure builds north of
the region. The high will build east then southeast of the local
waters through mid-week next week as surface fronts linger over
Georgia, returning southerly winds over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  90 /  30  50  50  50
SSI  75  90  77  88 /  40  60  30  50
JAX  74  93  74  90 /  40  80  40  70
SGJ  74  91  75  89 /  30  70  30  80
GNV  71  92  72  89 /  50  90  50  90
OCF  73  93  73  91 /  50  90  50  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$