Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
207
FXUS62 KJAX 030053
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
853 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Not much change to the forecast this evening. A ridge of high
pressure wedges down the southeast US coast into tomorrow as a
frontal boundary settles just north of the area. This will likely
stir up the winds a bit more tonight compared to last night, and
therefore could limit fog potential as a result. Still expecting
some patchy fog to develop over interior areas overnight, mainly
interior southeast GA. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be
common, closer to and just over 70 near the coast and St. Johns
River.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridging dominates the area today creating an onshore
flow and helps to bring in some low level moisture into the area.
Widely scattered showers make their way inland from the coast as
the Atlantic sea-breeze continues to make its way inland. A
stalled cold front is located over Central Georgia and looks to
shift south slightly overnight. Highs will reach into the low 80s,
staying slightly cooler along the coast. Overnight temperatures
will dip into the 60s sticking in the low 70s along the coast.
Patchy fog will be possible across inland Southeast Georgia early
Sunday morning but should dissipate by 9am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Breezy ENE winds between high pressure NNE of the region and
coastal troughs over the local Atlantic waters will bring periods
of coastal showers onshore with above normal temperatures as a
dome of mid/upper level high pressure slowly shifts east of the SE
Atlantic seaboard. Moisture will remain above normal and mainly
below 10 kft, keeping convection shallow in nature (no
thunderstorms expected. Above normal precipitable water (PWATs)
1.1-1.5 inches on Sunday is expected to fuel rain chances of
around 20-40% then PWAT falls to less than 1 inch (which is near
normal) Monday which will limit rain chances to 20% or less. The
steady easterly flow will keep convection brief and thus there are
not heavy rainfall hazards expected.

The main weather impacts in the short term will continue to focus
along the immediate coast and over the adjacent marine waters and
a NNE wind surge presses down the coast late Sunday into Monday,
bringing coastal wind gusts of 30-35 mph and increasing rip
current threat with marine hazards as winds and combined seas
build into early next week.

Temperatures continue to trend above normal with highs upper 70s
toward the coast Sunday to mid 80s well inland. Highs will
moderate a few degrees Monday with drier air in place bringing
more sunshine. Mild overnight lows will range in the 60s inland to
lower 70s coast with elevated boundary layer winds limiting fog
development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

An extended duration of onshore (easterly) flow is expected
through the upcoming week, with increasing deep layer moisture
mid-week as a potential tropical cyclone drifts into the south or
southeast Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between the tropical system
and the persistent high pressure NE of the region will continue
to bring breezy easterly low level winds and fuel more scattered
shower and isolated t`storm activity by midweek. GFS and ECMWF 500
mb ridge axis positions hold across north-central FL through late
Thu, which would keep any Gulf tropical system more WSW of the
area, but beyond Thu model solutions diverge with the ECMWF
holding a strong ridge over the area and tracking the system
westward while the GFS still indicates a more eastern Gulf track
as the system drifts northward into a mid level weakness. The
extended forecast late week will depend on the ultimate track of
the tropical system. Temperatures will trend near to above normal.

It is still far too early to speculate on any potential local
impacts, but, hurricane season is not over. Now is a good time to
check on supply kits and review your preparedness plans. Monitor
official sources of information from the National Hurricane Center
and be cautious of social media speculation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

VFR is expected to prevail for most overnight tonight, with just
very slight chances for -SHRA near the coast. FG is expected to be
mainly found north and west of all terminals, however at least
MVFR is possible at VQQ towards sunrise. Sunday, onshore flow near
or just above 10 kts will continue in addition to isolated SHRA.
Have included PROB30 for terminals closer to the coast Sunday
afternoon for now, though likely prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging over the area through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week as a strong high pressure system over
the Great Lakes slowly moves offshore of coastal New England by
early next week. This will help continue coastal toughing over
adjacent waters producing daily coastal showers. East-
northeasterly winds and seas increase to small craft advisory
levels over the Southeast Georgia waters on Sunday afternoon and
continue into early next week. High pressure moves further into
the Atlantic for mid-week as a potential Tropical System develops
in the Caribbean Sea.

Rip Currents: High Risk NE FL beaches today through the weekend.
Moderate rip current risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  68  77  68  79 /  10  30  30  20
JAX  67  80  67  82 /  10  40  40  20
SGJ  70  81  71  82 /  20  40  30  20
GNV  65  83  64  84 /  10  30  10  10
OCF  67  85  65  85 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ450-470.

&&

$$