Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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207 FXUS62 KJAX 030053 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 853 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Not much change to the forecast this evening. A ridge of high pressure wedges down the southeast US coast into tomorrow as a frontal boundary settles just north of the area. This will likely stir up the winds a bit more tonight compared to last night, and therefore could limit fog potential as a result. Still expecting some patchy fog to develop over interior areas overnight, mainly interior southeast GA. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be common, closer to and just over 70 near the coast and St. Johns River. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure ridging dominates the area today creating an onshore flow and helps to bring in some low level moisture into the area. Widely scattered showers make their way inland from the coast as the Atlantic sea-breeze continues to make its way inland. A stalled cold front is located over Central Georgia and looks to shift south slightly overnight. Highs will reach into the low 80s, staying slightly cooler along the coast. Overnight temperatures will dip into the 60s sticking in the low 70s along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible across inland Southeast Georgia early Sunday morning but should dissipate by 9am. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 Breezy ENE winds between high pressure NNE of the region and coastal troughs over the local Atlantic waters will bring periods of coastal showers onshore with above normal temperatures as a dome of mid/upper level high pressure slowly shifts east of the SE Atlantic seaboard. Moisture will remain above normal and mainly below 10 kft, keeping convection shallow in nature (no thunderstorms expected. Above normal precipitable water (PWATs) 1.1-1.5 inches on Sunday is expected to fuel rain chances of around 20-40% then PWAT falls to less than 1 inch (which is near normal) Monday which will limit rain chances to 20% or less. The steady easterly flow will keep convection brief and thus there are not heavy rainfall hazards expected. The main weather impacts in the short term will continue to focus along the immediate coast and over the adjacent marine waters and a NNE wind surge presses down the coast late Sunday into Monday, bringing coastal wind gusts of 30-35 mph and increasing rip current threat with marine hazards as winds and combined seas build into early next week. Temperatures continue to trend above normal with highs upper 70s toward the coast Sunday to mid 80s well inland. Highs will moderate a few degrees Monday with drier air in place bringing more sunshine. Mild overnight lows will range in the 60s inland to lower 70s coast with elevated boundary layer winds limiting fog development. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 An extended duration of onshore (easterly) flow is expected through the upcoming week, with increasing deep layer moisture mid-week as a potential tropical cyclone drifts into the south or southeast Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between the tropical system and the persistent high pressure NE of the region will continue to bring breezy easterly low level winds and fuel more scattered shower and isolated t`storm activity by midweek. GFS and ECMWF 500 mb ridge axis positions hold across north-central FL through late Thu, which would keep any Gulf tropical system more WSW of the area, but beyond Thu model solutions diverge with the ECMWF holding a strong ridge over the area and tracking the system westward while the GFS still indicates a more eastern Gulf track as the system drifts northward into a mid level weakness. The extended forecast late week will depend on the ultimate track of the tropical system. Temperatures will trend near to above normal. It is still far too early to speculate on any potential local impacts, but, hurricane season is not over. Now is a good time to check on supply kits and review your preparedness plans. Monitor official sources of information from the National Hurricane Center and be cautious of social media speculation. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 VFR is expected to prevail for most overnight tonight, with just very slight chances for -SHRA near the coast. FG is expected to be mainly found north and west of all terminals, however at least MVFR is possible at VQQ towards sunrise. Sunday, onshore flow near or just above 10 kts will continue in addition to isolated SHRA. Have included PROB30 for terminals closer to the coast Sunday afternoon for now, though likely prevailing VFR conditions. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging over the area through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as a strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes slowly moves offshore of coastal New England by early next week. This will help continue coastal toughing over adjacent waters producing daily coastal showers. East- northeasterly winds and seas increase to small craft advisory levels over the Southeast Georgia waters on Sunday afternoon and continue into early next week. High pressure moves further into the Atlantic for mid-week as a potential Tropical System develops in the Caribbean Sea. Rip Currents: High Risk NE FL beaches today through the weekend. Moderate rip current risk for SE GA beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 80 62 79 / 10 10 10 10 SSI 68 77 68 79 / 10 30 30 20 JAX 67 80 67 82 / 10 40 40 20 SGJ 70 81 71 82 / 20 40 30 20 GNV 65 83 64 84 / 10 30 10 10 OCF 67 85 65 85 / 10 20 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-470. && $$