Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

[Through 06Z Sunday]

Very light stratiform rain is quickly fading in coverage over
portions of the area and light south to SW winds 5 knots or
less and VFR conditions mainly expected to begin the 06Z TAF
cycle. There may be some brief high end MVFR conditions at
KVQQ due to patchy local fog and some lowering of broken clouds
at KSSI to around 2.5 kft until 10-12Z window. Otherwise weak low
pressure lifting NE away from the region and high pressure ridging
building from Bermuda into central FL will keep the Gulf coast
seabreeze dominant and focus new rounds of convection closer to
the Florida east coast where the Atlantic seabreeze will be more
pinned with prevailing west to SW flow aloft.

Have PROB30 groups for all TAF sites during the afternoon into
early evening generally 19-23Z, lasting a little later at KCRG
and KSGJ until 24-01Z with some brief gusty winds noted for the
Duval and KSGJ terminals where the best focus for seabreeze
collisions and storm mergers are expected. Main threats in
addition to the gusty winds will be frequent lightning and heavy
downpours leading to some localized flooding with storms. The
Atlantic seabreeze should elevate SE winds to 8-10 knots at the
coastal TAF sites by 17-18Z and turn winds southerly at KJAX and
KVQQ by 19-20Z with seabreeze passage prior to wayward winds in
storms. All showers and storms will cease by 02-03Z window with
light south to SW winds and scattered to broken clouds around 3.0
under mid level debris clouds.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Tropical airmass extending across the region from the low pressure
center along the GA/SC coast with PWATs of 2 inches or more and
diurnal heating has kicked off numerous to widespread shower and
storm activity that will continue through sunset before slowly
fading/ending around midnight. Main threats will be heavy rainfall
due to slow storm motion and some strong wind gusts into the 40-50
mph range, although cannot rule out an isolated severe wet
microburst gusts to 60mph. Low temps will fall overnight into the
lower 70s inland and middle 70s for the Atlantic Coast with some
brief/patchy fog possible around sunrise Saturday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Moist tropical airmass with PWATs of 2 inches or more will linger
through the holiday weekend and combine with diurnal heating and a
weak westerly flow. This will provide for numerous to widespread
coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
hours, and interaction with the East Coast sea breeze pushing into
the I-95 corridor where most of the heavy rainfall threat will be
along with locally/urbanized temporary flooding issues. Max temps
reaching into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast before
convection breaks out each, and combined with dewpoints in the
middle 70s, peak heat indices in the 100-105 range. Rain cooled
lows in the lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the Coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Bermuda High pressure ridge axis will slowly build westward across
the region and shift the steering flow back to a more southeasterly
direction which will at first shift the numerous showers and
storms more inland on Monday and Tuesday, then slightly drier
airmass aloft builds into the region with PWATs falling to just
below 2 inches along with High Pressure Ridging aloft to bring
back to more "normal" scattered afternoon/evening storms with
coverage of 40-50% for the Wednesday through Friday time frame.
Max temps will remain above normal in the lower/middle 90s inland
and around 90 along the Atlantic Coast.


Low pressure along the SC/GA coast with trough extending south
across NE FL/SE GA will continue a South-Southwest flow in the
15-20 knot range tonight with seas 3-6 ft and have placed a SCEC
(Small Craft Exercise Caution) headline in the CWF. This low
pressure system will slowly track NE away from the waters over the
holiday weekend with decreasing S-SW winds back into the 10-15
knot range. Bermuda high pressure ridge axis will build in from
the East across the local waters next week with less thunderstorm
activity expect and mainly South winds at 10-15 knots and local SE
sea breezes along the coast each day.

Rip Currents: A mainly south to southwest flow with daily SE sea
breezes along the Atlantic Coast will keep a Moderate risk of rip
currents through the holiday weekend with surf/breakers generally
in the 2-3 ft range.


Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized 3 to 5 inch
amounts are expected through Monday across most of the area,
especially closer to the Atlantic Coast along the I-95 and US301
corridors where interaction with the East Coast sea breeze takes
place. Most of this rainfall is welcome since June was drier than
normal, but may produce some temporary localized/urban flooding
during the afternoon and evening hours.



AMG  91  72  92  72  92 /  60  30  70  30  60
SSI  89  76  90  77  90 /  60  40  50  40  50
JAX  91  74  91  76  91 /  70  60  70  30  60
SGJ  89  75  90  76  89 /  60  60  50  30  50
GNV  91  72  91  72  92 /  60  50  70  30  70
OCF  91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  70  30  70


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