Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 211933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
333 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Potential for strong thunderstorm formation this afternoon as a
rotating shortwave makes its way northward, already producing
storms with hail and winds capable of knocking down trees along
the sea breeze fronts. This area of instability is expected to
continue proceeding to the north for areas west of and near the
I-75 corridor, however with the dry air aloft storms capable of
producing hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall can not be
ruled out for other areas. Storms are also forming along the east
coast sea breeze and will continue to develop and press inland,
with the sea breezes meeting up near and west of Hwy 301 later
this afternoon. Storm activity is expected to disperse later
tonight, after sunset. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
be in the low 70s for inland areas and in the mid 70s for coastal

.SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/...

Prevailing flow will shift about to out of the southwest as the
high pressure ridging weakens over the forecast area and drifts
southward. Reduced PWAT values ranging between 1.5 to 2 inches are
forecasted for Monday which could lead to scattered storms forming
in the late afternoon to early evening hours, with the area of
heaviest convection likely occuring near the I-75 corridor and in
the southernmost counties of the forecast area. Conditions on
Tuesday will become very unstable as a strong front presses into
Georgia from out of the northwest, thus bringing significantly
more moist air with numerous thunderstorms and showers expected to
form all throughout the region with the heaviest storms forming
in the afternoon and evening before dispersing in the early AM
hours. High temperatures for the beginning of the week are
expected to be reach into the mid and lower 90s for inland areas
where cloud cover and storm formation is minimal, with temps along
the coastlines being in the low 90s. Heat index values cam range
as high as as 99-105 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will be
in the low to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for
coastal locations.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Models show that the frontal boundary is expected to stall over
Georgia through Thursday, which will result in significant
thunderstorm developments for Wednesday and Thursday. The boundary
will begin to retract on Friday, moving off towards the north, and
high pressure ridging from out of the east will extend over the
region Saturday bringing with it drier conditions and reduced
levels of convection. Max temperatures are expected to drop
slightly in the coming week as a result of the increased
convection and cloud cover, with max temps dropping to the lower
90s and upper 80s by midweek and remaining in the low 90s into the
weekend. Heat index values are expected to drop into the 90s
during the period of heaviest storm development, but then return
to 100 degrees and higher on Saturday. Overnight low temperatures
are anticipated to be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in
the upper 70s along the coastline.



Showers and storms were forming along the sea breeze boundaries
early this afternoon, and these showers and storms will spread
inland through the afternoon hours. Storms will become more
numerous across the interior towards KGNV and KVQQ, and have TEMPO
groups for these TAF sites. Light winds will become southeasterly
around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Storms
will diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating, with
light winds and VFR conditions prevailing overnight.



Surface high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula
through Monday with winds increasing to about 15-20 knots Monday
night through early Tuesday morning in association with a low
pressure trough develops in the NW. A stronger front will move
southward toward the local waters late Tuesday and weaken near
the local waters Wednesday and Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE Florida beaches


AMG  95  73  93  74 /  20  10  40  20
SSI  92  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  94  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  20
SGJ  91  74  90  74 /  40  20  20  20
GNV  93  73  92  73 /  70  30  50  20
OCF  93  72  92  73 /  80  40  50  20




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