971
FXUS63 KJKL 142000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-40%) for a shower or
  thunderstorm through this evening, primarily north of the KY
  highway 80/Hal Rogers Pkwy/Cumberland Parkway corridor.

- Hot and somewhat humid weather arrives on Sunday and persists
  into the upcoming week. Afternoon heat indices may peak around
  100 at some locations Sunday through Wednesday.

- There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  on Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

Models are in general agreement for the overall pattern that will
affect our area during the long term period. Upper level high
pressure will start out centered in the vicinity of the southern
Appalachians on Sunday. It is expected to shift north to near NYC at
mid week, and then back south to the vicinity of VA on Friday.
The ridge is now expected to keep convection capped much of the
time for our area. However, one exception is Monday, when the GFS
and ECMWF both allow for a bit of mainly diurnal activity in the
afternoon and evening as an area of somewhat higher moisture
rotates around the western side of the high center. In terms of
model differences, the main issue is in the strength of the
high/ridge, with the ECMWF being stronger than the GFS, especially
later in the week. The weaker GFS allows for deep convection to
boil up on Thursday and Friday, whereas the ECMWF is dry. This
results in hotter temps in the ECMWF. Will allow for a model blend
to smooth out these differences for now, with only a slight
chance of precip to be mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least the vast
majority of the TAF period. A passing disturbance is responsible
for a few very isolated sprinkles south of the Mountain Parkway
early this afternoon. A slightly better but still low chance for
a shower or thunderstorm will occur from 00-04z, primarily
northeast of KY-15, with the passage of a weak cold front.
Generally variable winds ~5 kts or less will persist through
tonight but gusty outflows could exist where thunderstorm activity
is present. MVFR or worse conditions are possible in fog
overnight, especially where rain occurs this afternoon; but this
is low confidence at this time since forecast rainfall coverage
remains very spotty.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON