Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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096 FXUS63 KJKL 110550 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler than normal and pleasant weather will hold through mid-week. - Hot weather arrives late this week, with highs in low to mid 90s taking hold by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Low clouds in the southeast part of the area continue to slowly clear off. Mainly made adjustments for this process and also to fine tune the fog threat in the river valleys into dawn. The latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids were also included with this update. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1026 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024 Sky/cloud cover continues to be the trickiest part of the overnight forecast, with some areas of clear skies and others overcast. Models suggest areas east of I-75 and near/along the Hal Rogers Parkway have the highest probability of sustained cloud cover. Sky grids use a blend of CONShort, HRRR, and NBM to reflect this thinking. The forecast is on track otherwise, with hourly observations blended into the gridded forecast. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024 Quite the difficult cloud cover forecast tonight as a large area of stratus clouds sits over the Ohio River Valley poised to move southeast into the area. The problem is that models don`t seem to be resolving this area of clouds. Blended in the HRRR with the previous Sky grid forecast through tonight, which results in increased cloud cover at times. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with little in the way of any significant changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 326 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front is in the process of pushing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon. We are seeing NW flow at JKL likely indicating the passage of the front. This front will lead to some wind gusts of 15-20 mph at times this afternoon under decent mixing from the front. The other issue has been more cloud cover and this has limited some locations form achieving the afternoon high particularly in somewhat higher terrain areas given the cold air advection. Overall lowered afternoon highs in some locations toward the 25 percentile. Outside this the post frontal stratus noted upstream will be somewhat a challenge tonight, as the models including the HREF are struggling to handle the progression southward of this. Overall seems like it has been behaving and staying just short of eastern Kentucky. This will be particularly interesting as ensembles and deterministic guidance show a shortwave pushing southward late tonight. This will put overnight lows in question, with more clouds it could limit the ridge/valley splits. However, right now we will keep the mid to upper 40s in the valleys and upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. This frontal boundary will usher in drier and cooler airmass for Tuesday, with PWAT values in the 0.5 to 0.6 range based on the HREF. This is around 2 standard deviations below normal for June. In the mid-levels, ensembles and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that we will see shortwave ridging leading to rising heights. There could be a few pancake cumulus at around 4 kft, but expect mostly sunny skies Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Afternoon highs like this are around 5-10 degrees below normals for JKL and LOZ climate sites for this time of year. The skies will clear for Tuesday night and could once again lead to ridge/valley temperatures splits with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys and low to mid 50s on the ridges. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 406 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024 It`s the tale of the big bubble no trouble...almost. High pressure will be in control across the state to start the period Wednesday. This will continue through Thursday and into Thursday night. As of 0Z Friday, a low pressure system will be passing just north of the Great Lakes. This will drop a cold front southeastward. Along this front, models show some light scattered precip developing. It`s not super strong, and doesn`t look to strengthen. The front won`t make it through the state until Friday night, but can`t rule out a brief shower occurring in the CWA as it moves through. The latest NBM is trending precip downward, only showing one hour with pops in the slight chance category. But something to watch for. Once that system exits, another round of high pressure takes hold from the north. This will persist into Sunday, before the next system attempts to move into the region. The NBM has some pops making it into the southern CWA along return southerly flow Sunday, but the best chances (though still slim) will occur on Monday. It`s been noted that with every run, the precip chances and system keeps getting pushed back later and later. Obviously given that this is Day 7 and 8, there is still room for change. Also, given the strong upper level high pressure system, it`s going to be hard for good lift and instability to make it into the region. Perhaps the biggest story for this extended period is actually the temperatures. With mostly sunny skies and upper level ridging will keep good radiational heating across the region. Temperatures, therefore, will be on a warming trend. Wednesdays highs will still be fairly mild, in low 80s. By Thursday and Friday we will see upper 80s and low 90s. The cold front that moves through Friday night will be very meager at best, and even with light northerly flow on Saturday, highs will still be in the upper 80s to around 90. From here, our location on the southerly extent of a surface high and under a strong upper level ridge will only amplify the temperatures. Highs on Sunday are currently forecast in the mid 90s, with heat indexes touching 100 degrees in a few locations. A similar set up may be on tap for Monday as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Low stratus clouds continue to slowly erode in the southeast parts of the area. Have timed that for JKL and SJS otherwise skc conditions will prevail through the period. A small window for valley fog development this morning as those clouds clear will keep the terminals unrestricted. Winds will be through the morning before picking up a bit at less than 10 kts from the north this afternoon - diminishing to light in the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...CMC/GREIF