Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
000 FXUS62 KKEY 171431 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 This is one of the first mornings in a while that we have been able to watch the sunrise. While there was some cloud cover, the coverage was not nearly as much as has been seen over the past week. GOES Visible Satellite is depicting partly cloudy skies along the island chain, with a mix of low-level cumulus and upper level cirrus skirting across the region. High pressure just off the Northeast coast and a broad low over the Yucatan Peninsula have both aided in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Keys over the past 24 hours. Marine observation platforms are currently measuring sustained winds of 15 to 17 knots along the Reef. This morning`s sounding sampled slightly higher moisture than last night`s, with a PW value of 1.87". Despite this moisture value being near the 75th percentile for today, KBYX is detecting no meteorological echoes within the Florida Keys forecast area. Despite the current lack of a triggering mechanism, winds are forecast to increase which could be what is needed to kick-start shower development. Easterlies will continue to pump moisture across our area, and with the possible speed convergence in mind for later, have decided to keep 30% rain chances for the remainder of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes this afternoon through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a brief slackening of breezes before high pressure takes control again resulting in freshening east to southeasterly breezes late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. KBYX radar shows some showers near Miami which were moving to the southwest near 10 knots. The timing on these showers arriving to near the MTH terminal is around ~17/21z and then EYW around 18/00z if they can hold together. These showers also look to be the leading edge to the wind surge expected for later today through the overnight hours. Near surface winds will be mainly east near 15 knots with frequent gusts to around 20 knots increasing to near 25 knots late this afternoon/early evening continuing through the overnight hours. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1972, the daily record high temperature of 99F was recorded. This is also the hottest temperature ever recorded in the month of June, and ties July 15th, 1987 for the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Marathon area. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 83 89 82 / 20 30 40 30 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest