Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
240 FXUS62 KKEY 150250 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1050 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Winds have slowly veered to the north to northeast over the past few hours, but have remained light. Within this light flow, a few boundaries have been able to spur on shower development, with some portions of the Upper Keys receiving almost a half an inch of rainfall. It has been another evening of minimal lightning activity due to showers not being able to grow vertically due to the lighter flow and very warm heights aloft. This evening`s sounding did sample a less chaotic atmospheric wind profile, but they were still very light. There was some drier air sampled in the lower and mid-levels, which could have been another cause of the quiet evening. Something of note that can be seen clearly on GOES Nighttime Microphysics is a large swath of drier air in the Gulf of Mexico that currently extends halfway down the Florida Peninsula. Earlier along the leading edge of this drier air, a boundary developed and triggered showers and thunderstorms. While these storms did not make it to our area, it was an interesting sight for mid-September! For tonight, light and variable winds combined with the fewer ghost boundaries lurking due to the more northerly wind direction experienced this evening will help keep rain chances lower than normal tonight. Have decided to drop rain chances to slight (20%) for the remainder of the night. Light and variable winds will gradually settle on a southwest to west direction by early tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. Light and, at times, variable breezes will continue through Thursday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. An upper level trough will amplify and slowly slide southward towards the Florida Peninsula next week. This will likely bring elevated rain and thunder chances back to the Keys, although confidence in the extended forecast is quite low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Showers this evening have been relatively short-lived, and confidence in the timing and location of any further shower development is low, so have kept mention of showers out of both TAFs for the time being. By tomorrow morning, winds will have shifted to the southwest which could be conducive to the development of a reverse cloud line. By tomorrow evening, winds will shift to the northwest to north. && .CLIMATE... Yesterday, September 13th, the low temperature at Key West International Airport only dropped to 87F. This set not only a new daily record warm low temperature, but also the monthly warm low temperature record for September. Another interesting note about yesterday`s temperatures at Key West is that the high temperature was 91F, making for only a 4 degree diurnal variation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 92 83 91 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 83 92 82 90 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest