Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
816 FXUS62 KKEY 291434 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a weakness in the low- level ridging from near the northern Bahamas to offshore the Space Coast. Low-level streamlines suggest weak confluence across our the northeastern third of the CWA, but on-the-whole the flow is anticyclonic and easterly. The KMFL and KKEY RAOB sampled slight different thermodynamic profiles, both near 2" of PW but drier BL air was noted across South Florida. There is a west-east gradient in the SFC winds across the Keys as the low-level easterlies accelerate into AL94 moving west into the Bay of Campeche. This speed divergence combined with the largely anticylonic flow should overwhelm the weak confluence to our east. Andros and South Florida should send a few convective outflows to the west later this afternoon and evening, but not enough to sway from the 30% rain/thunder chances for the island chain. The wind forecast may require a split for the western marine zones as winds approach 15 to 20 knots. Nevertheless, the inherited forecast is on track and needs no adjustments at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Breezes will freshen today as the gradient between a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf and a North Atlantic ridge tightens briefly. As the disturbance moves westward into Central America, the gradient will relax, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move south of Cuba starting Wednesday night. Breezes across the Florida Keys will freshen as the system transits westward well south of our area. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period for both EYW and MTH terminals. There are some indications for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to potentially develop this afternoon with another period overnight, mainly due to mesoscale convective processes. GOES 16 Visible satellite does show multiple boundaries across the Keys in the form of cumulus which could be a catalyst for any potential shower or storm to develop. However, due to low confidence in timing and placement, VCSH was left out of the TAFs for now and we will continue to monitor. Other than that, expect easterly winds to continue with an uptick to the winds, possibly some gusts (~20 kts) during the afternoon and early evening hours before decreasing overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, a daily record high temperature of 94F was measured in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. $$ .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest