Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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809 FXUS64 KLCH 241819 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Almost like clockwork, areas of shallow ground fog have developed again this morning. These will have the potential to result in rapid changes in visibility while driving. Visibilities are expected to become unlimited again by 14Z. A weak, quasistationary prefrontal boundary bisecting the region across central Louisiana this morning has been producing a narrow swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the early morning. This boundary is likely to meander through the day, but will provide a focus for increasing convection this afternoon as temperatures increase. Guidance has a sharp precip gradient on the southern side of this boundary with central Louisiana an Southeast Texas more likely to see precip and higher cloud cover with PoPs at 20% or less across Acadiana. The proximity of this boundary may limit fog formation tonight in it`s immediate vicinity, but guidance still supports another round of at least patchy fog development early Wednesday morning. A better defined cold front will push through the region Wednesday although guidance has slowed it`s forward motion significantly compared to runs over the last couple of days. Thus, it may not clear lower acadiana until late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Guidance has also backed of PoPs with the FROPA and the forecast will reflect this. Northerly flow will increase Wednesday night into Thursday in response to both the FROPA as well as the pressure gradient of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which is expected to be making landfall across the Florida panhandle. A cooler, drier airmass of dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s will follow. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The extended period will be dry and mild as the region remains with in the northwest flow of the remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. As the remnants of PTC 9 are absorbed into an upper low over the southern plains, some guidance depicts some of the remnant moisture around the west side of the combined feature and into the area over the weekend. However, guidance remains split on this scenario and given the complex nature of this interaction, opted to err on the drier side until there is better model consensus. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Very isolated showers are along the coast and moving into interior SETX. We could see more of this activity later in the afternoon to evening, but with the isolated nature, carried VC for the TAFs. Tonight it will be likely to see another round of patchy fog, that will burn off shortly after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light with a general onshore component today. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop over the coastal waters this afternoon as a weak prefrontal boundary meanders inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday as a cold front pushes slowly through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday. Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 is expected to become a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. Based on the current forecast track and intensity, offshore flow in the 20-30 knot range and increasing seas are expected to develop Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle and moves inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 69 85 63 / 40 40 30 10 LCH 90 73 88 66 / 20 20 30 0 LFT 92 74 89 69 / 10 20 30 10 BPT 92 73 90 67 / 30 20 30 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87