861
FXUS64 KLCH 012336
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

In the near term, expanded Severe Thunderstorm Watch #365 a small
ways to the east earlier after collaborating with SPC as ongoing
convection within the initially issued watch was moving eastward
out of the watch into an area that was also conducive to severe
potential. No change to the watch`s expiration time.

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a trof/convergence boundary
sitting along roughly the I-10 corridor, otherwise high pressure
centered along the Carolina coast is remaining in control with
srly low-level flow in place. Water vapor imagery shows weak
troffing in place over the center of the country with a
significant shortwave dropping through it approaching the region
at this time. The combo of these features along with a very moist
airmass (12z KLCH sounding showed a PWAT near 1.8 inches which
forecast soundings indicate is likely higher this afternoon) has
led to another round of scattered/numerous showers/thunderstorms
which initiated near the coast over sern TX and have been
gradually spreading ewd (as lift spreads ahead of the wave) and
inland (via outflow development/collisions).

This convection is expected to linger into the evening hours
before sunset/loss of heating leads to a gradual dissipation.
Until then, the severe threat lingers (thus the going WW) while
the flash flooding threat, already present as noted in reports
received from sern TX, likely grows due to continued development
and slow storm movement. In response, WPC has upgraded the
forecast area to a slight risk for the remainder of today into
tonight.

Sunday looks fairly similar to today as another shortwave is
progged to push ewd across the region within a developing zonal
flow aloft behind the departing trof axis. Forecast soundings
indicate good moisture lingering (mean RHs around 80 percent and
PWATs nearing 2.0 inches which exceeds the 90th percentile per SPC
climo). With daytime heating/mesoscale impacts, expecting yet
another round of convection with elevated rain chances. SPC has
highlighted the swrn 2/3 of the forecast area in a marginal risk
for severe with damaging wind gusts being the main concern
(although recent days have shown that large hail will likely be
part of the equation again). Meanwhile, WPC has highlighted the
entire area again in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall...
while forecasted QPF values don`t look menacing, the antecedent
wet conditions will allow for lesser rainfalls to create flooding
issues.

Monday should finally bring some dry weather as the nearly zonal
flow begins getting replaced by weak ridging aloft. Forecast
soundings indicate less capping and better moisture over the nern
zones...and with daytime heating being the primary driver, we
could see a few showers/storms during the afternoon across mainly
the Atchafalaya Basin/e-cntl LA.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long term begins Tuesday with ridging developing aloft in
response to a mid/upper-level low digging swd through the Desert
SW into nwrn Mexico...the resulting capping should keep convection
at bay across our region despite the continued good low-level
moisture. Wednesday currently looks like a repeat performance,.

Rain chances, albeit small, return to the forecast for Thursday
and Friday as the ridge begins breaking down in response to a
digging trof over the ern CONUS...the resultant weak capping
allowing for widely scattered convection to develop mainly over
our nern zones.

Temperatures are progged to start rather seasonal with daytime highs
around 90F, although warmer than normal mins are forecast with
readings all through the 70s. A slight warming trend is in the works
with highs in the lower/mid 90s by period`s end...overnight lows
remain rather static.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Exiting area of -TSRA from AEX to LFT/ARA expecting to end within
the next hour or so. Another stronger TSRA complex across
Northeast Texas/Northwest Louisiana likely to clip areas of
Central Louisiana from 01-03z this evening, if it holds together.
Left VCTS for AEX through 02z, but may have to upgrade to TSRA on
latest radar trends. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings expected by 11z
through 15z. Another healthy chance of TSRA for Sunday afternoon,
with VCTS beginning around 17-18Z with a PROB30 group from 19-24z
for all sites.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

No headlines are anticipated on the CWF until Monday when a
tightening gradient on lowering pressures over the srn Plains lead
srly winds to increase to caution criteria.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

With the month of May, as well as the climatological Spring (March
through May), behind us, here`s a quick recap of how the
warmth/wet of the seasons ranked within history.

AEX (records date to 1892)
5/27 high of 98 deg tied for 4th warmest May day
10th wettest Spring - 24.05" (record 32.85/1953)

ARA (records date to 1948)
3rd warmest May - 78.6 deg (record 79.0/2018)
8th warmest Spring - 71.0 deg (record 73.1/2012)

BPT (records date to 1901)
Tied 10th warmest May - 78.9 deg (record 81.1/1902)
5th wettest May - 14.75" (record 20.58/1923)
4th warmest Spring - 71.9 deg (record 72.6/2012)
5th wettest Spring - 25.18" (record 34.79/1914)

LCH (records date to 1895)
4th warmest May - 78.7 deg (record 79.9/2010)
3rd warmest Spring - 71.5 deg (record 73.0/2012)

LFT (records date to 1893)
3rd warmest May - 79.9 deg (record 80.0/2018)
2nd warmest Spring- 72.4 deg (record 72.7/2012)

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  88  71  90 /  40  40  30  20
LCH  72  88  76  88 /  30  50  20  10
LFT  73  88  75  91 /  50  60  30  10
BPT  74  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...08