944
FXUS64 KLCH 060253
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
953 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weak "front" across Northeast Texas and North
Louisiana, with a weak pressure gradient across the region,
resulting in light and variable to calm winds. Thunderstorm
complex from earlier this morning has dissipated hours ago as
area radars are free of echos. No redevelopment expected this
evening into the early morning hours. Isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms possible across Lower Acadiana
and adjacent coastal waters towards daybreak per latest guidance.
Updates to forecast earlier this evening removed lingering chances
of precipitation this evening into the early morning hours. With
the partly cloudy skies, wet ground, and nearly calm winds, added patchy
to areas of fog possible after Midnight, with possibly dense fog
for an hour or so near the daybreak hour. Not enough shortterm
guidance agreement for this, as we are entering the shorter nights
near the summer solstice.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A MCS is slowly moving across the region, which is riding a weak
front. As the disturbance moves south, it will stall along the
coast. This feature will be a focal point for new convection to
form along, through the night. High moisture content will keep
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest of the
week. Thankfully, however it looks like we will break our streak
of SPC outlooks with no risk area over any part of the CWA for
Thursday or Friday. Aloft, high pressure in Mexico will cause a
ridge to slowly start to build over the region, limiting the
development of wide-spread convection.

Temperatures will rise for the rest of the week, with highs in the
mid-90s. Heat index values will reach the triple digits but won`t
be near the advisory level of 108.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For the entire period, we could see isolated to scattered PoPs, with
the most active weather day expected to be Monday. Temperatures will
be near or above climatological normals.

Saturday morning the upper ridge will be directly atop the CWA
keeping PoPs low and temps high. The surface ridge will be off to
our northeast, with southerly flow bringing in moisture. Any PoPs we
might see will be diurnally driven. High temps and dewpoints are
expected over the weekend, however they fall short of the criteria
for a Heat Advisory. Nevertheless with heat indices in the 99-104
range, we urge sensitive populations to take the proper precautions.

Midday to late Sunday the upper ridge will begin to lose its
influence over the region as a trough moves east, swinging a front
through the Southeast / Gulf Coast States on Monday. It is too early
to tell what if any severe weather impacts will be felt in the area
at this time, however due to the onslaught of rain and saturated
soils added to the possibility of heavy rain on Monday, a marginal
risk was added to the area.

A surface high pressure will move into the region after frontal
passage. Cooler air is not wholly expected, with temps only dropping
a few degrees. Dewpoints will also drop by a few degrees too.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For the entire period, we could see isolated to scattered PoPs, with
the most active weather day expected to be Monday. Temperatures will
be near or above climatological normals.

Saturday morning the upper ridge will be directly atop the CWA
keeping PoPs low and temps high. The surface ridge will be off to
our northeast, with southerly flow bringing in moisture. Any PoPs we
might see will be diurnally driven. High temps and dewpoints are
expected over the weekend, however they fall short of the criteria
for a Heat Advisory. Nevertheless with heat indices in the 99-104
range, we urge sensitive populations to take the proper precautions.

Midday to late Sunday the upper ridge will begin to lose its
influence over the region as a trough moves east, swinging a front
through the Southeast / Gulf Coast States on Monday. It is too early
to tell what if any severe weather impacts will be felt in the area
at this time, however due to the onslaught of rain and saturated
soils added to the possibility of heavy rain on Monday, a marginal
risk was added to the area.

A surface high pressure will move into the region after frontal
passage. Cooler air is not wholly expected, with temps only dropping
a few degrees. Dewpoints will also drop by a few degrees too.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and storms are moving through central to south central
Louisiana with light to moderate showers behind there. Showers
will taper out of the area this evening and tonight with little to
no activity during the overnight hours. Overnight and into
tomorrow morning we could see fog develop across most of the area.
Confidence in LIFR fog is low, however the models are hinting at
it for some of the southern sites. Whatever fog forms will burn
off tomorrow morning after sunrise, with conditions improving.

Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...

Light southerly flow expected to prevail over the Northern Gulf
of Mexico through early next week. Expect the chances of showers
to increase near daybreak off the South Central Louisiana coast.
Minimum chances of precipitation expected Friday and Saturday as
high pressure aloft builds in from the west. The next chance of
showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  90  69  93 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  74  92  73  94 /  10  10   0  10
LFT  75  90  74  95 /  10  20   0  10
BPT  76  94  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...08