330
FXUS64 KLCH 252050
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
350 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Surface analysis shows a cold front across N LA into E TX. South
of the boundary, temperatures ranged from around 80 across our
northern zones to around 90 across Acadiana, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. KLCH radar shows a band of scattered
showers and isolated storms from near New Iberia southwest across
the nearshore waters and west toward High Island. Further north, a
few isolated small showers were developing across E TX into W LA,
closer to the vicinity of the front.

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a sharply amplified
pattern over the CONUS, with a deep trough and embedded closed low
over the mid MS Valley and a large ridge over the Rockies.
Hurricane Helene features prominently as well, entering the SE
Gulf of Mexico.

The key messages for the upcoming forecast period will be the
arrival of the cold front tonight, and this will herald a period
of dry and seasonable conditions for the next several days. The
front will also usher in some strong and gusty offshore winds for
the coastal waters from late tonight into Thursday, and Small
Craft Advisories will be in effect. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene
is expected to continue strengthening as it moves over the eastern
Gulf, and is forecast to reach major hurricane status prior to
making landfall near Apalachee Bay FL.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A few lingering showers will be possible through tonight as the
cold front sags southward off the coast. Moisture remains
sufficient south of the front, and modest low level forcing will
support some isolated to possibly scattered showers late this
afternoon into this evening, with coverage diminishing overnight.

The passage of the front will bring drier air into the region,
with dry air advection augmented by pronounced northerly flow on
the western side of Helene on Thursday. Dry conditions are then
expected to persist into Friday and further into the long term
period.

Temperatures tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with
lows falling into the lower to middle 60s north as slightly cooler
air begins to filter into the area behind the front. Further
south, lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. Temperatures the next couple of days will be seasonal
with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the low to
middle 60s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

By Saturday, the remnants of Helene will be well inland over
TN/KY. N-NW flow aloft will maintain the dry conditions over the
region through the weekend as the remnants eventually lift out to
the NE. By early next week, ridging aloft will begin to nose into
the region from the west, helping to keep the region dry and
capped into the workweek. Thus, rain chances are expected to stay
limited through the long term.

No significant change in temperatures is anticipated over the
weekend and into early next week. Other than a modest uptick in
highs and lows, temperatures should remain seasonal with highs in
the middle to upper 80s and lows in the middle to upper 60s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Convection will be possible at the southern TAF sites this
afternoon as a band of storms moves southeast through the region.
Brief wind gusts, occasional cloud to ground lightning and lower
cigs/vis will be possible as these storms move across the
airports. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will prevail through
the period. Winds will shift NE-N tonight, strengthening to 10-15
KT with higher gusts possible by Thursday morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
tonight as a cold front slowly slides south into the coastal
waters. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front
tonight. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene will continue to move north
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the strong pressure gradient
on the western side of the system will augment the strengthening
offshore flow over the coastal waters zones on Thursday.

NBM probabilities suggest a very high likelihood (greater than
80%) that winds will be at least 20 KT beginning late tonight and
continuing through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will be in
effect from 09Z tonight through at least 00Z Friday, with the
Advisory expected to continue over the eastern coastal waters
zones through 06Z Friday as they gradually taper off from west to
east.

Winds will gradually diminish on Friday and shift more westerly
as Helene moves inland over the southeast US. A light to moderate
westerly flow will continue into the weekend, but no additional
headlines are anticipated at this time.

24

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  82 /  20   0   0  10
LCH  69  85  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
LFT  71  86  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  69  88  64  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-
     470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ452-455-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...24