895
FXUS65 KLKN 202159
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
259 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather continues though virga looks to
be in place across portions of eastern Nevada tomorrow afternoon.
Daytime high temperatures will mostly be in the 90s beginning
Saturday and thru early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.

Upper trof situated over the west coast tonight with dry
southwesterly flow continuing over the region keeps weather dry
and benign. Overnight low temperatures reside in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Trof is expected to gradually progress east and
concurrently weaken Friday as an area of high pressure begins
retrograding into the four corners region from the southeastern
U.S. Only sensible weather effects anticipated are cumulus clouds
in the afternoon with towering cumulus likely over the eastern
half of the CWA and the typical afternoon breezes. Latest model
guidance has again slightly increased the potential for showers,
and showers have been added to the forecast for the eastern half
of Elko County and portions of northern White Pine County.
Current thinking is that virga will be the main fare with no
significant rain accumulation as sub par PWATs are a limiting
factor. That said, a stray lightning strike or two cant be
totally ruled out, but there isn`t enough confidence to include
dry thunderstorms in the forecast given the latest numerical
guidance. Benign conditions will be in place Friday night.
Temperatures continue to creep warmer with daytime highs in the
80s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Saturday, southerly winds will veer to westerly winds by the
afternoon and be breezy at times across central Nevada and
Humboldt county, where winds could gust as high as 25-30 mph.
Temperatures are forecasted in the mid to upper 90s for most, with
some areas approaching 100. This is do to a subtropical high that
will strengthen in the days to follow and migrate slightly
northward into the four corners region. Dry condtions and above
average condtions can be expected through Thursday with highs in
the 90s during the day, and upper 50s to lower 60s at night. The
exception will be Southeast Elko county, including the city of
West Wendover, where daytime temperatures in the upper 90s and
nighttime lows in the lower 70s may stress at risk people of the
public to heat related illnesses. Condtions will continue to be
monitored the closer the days get.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through this afternoon and Friday. Winds will be light of the W
at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT across N NV. Breezy winds out of
the SW at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT will be possible for
central NV. Weaker winds are expected Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Benign weather tonight with conditions remaining mostly fair
Friday with the typical afternoon breezes. However, the exception
will be zones 469, 470, and the northern half of 425 who will see
cumulus build ups and virga Friday afternoon. Dry thunderstorms
are not anticipated, though a stray lightning strike or two cant
be totally ruled out, but there isn`t enough confidence to include
dry thunder in the forecast given the latest prognostics. Hot and
dry weather otherwise continues thru the weekend with the typical
afternoon breezes also present. Minimum afternoon RH values look
to reside less than 15% thru the weekend as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with
well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises
on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are
expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new
flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus will continue with elevated
flows today and into Friday, with the flow forecast to drop below
monitoring stage later on Friday.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will remain in action
stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/91/91/92/91