Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
074 FXUS65 KLKN 251014 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 314 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will be joined by showers and thunderstorms today thru tomorrow as an upper low moves across the PacNW, bringing a frontal boundary thru the forecast area. Elevated fire weather concerns will be present tomorrow. Dry but cooler weather the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night High pressure continues to reside over the four corners region this morning with a deep upper low situated offshore of the PacNW. Low progresses eastward Tuesday and Wednesday with a modest cold front moving thru the forecast area from the northwest Wednesday. Increasing mid level moisture ahead of the low and attendant front will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with activity persisting thru tonight. Strong outflow winds with gusts 45mph and lightning will be the main concerns. Best chances for wetting rains, accumulations greater than 0.10", will be over the high terrain. Better coverage in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday though activity will be mostly situated across the eastern half of the forecast area with the same concerns for gusty outflow winds and lightning present. Activity dissipates Wednesday night. Temperatures remain warm today and tomorrow with daytime highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows in the low 50s to low 60s tonight, cooling to the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday Moisture will be largely pushed eastward Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be knocked down to a more comfortable mix of lower to mid 80s across northern Nevada with 90s remaining US-50 southward. West winds will be elevated but lower temperatures humidity will be above critically low thresholds across northeastern Nevada. A few showers along the Utah/Nevada border are possible but not widespread and favored over higher terrain. Very dry conditions, including daytime relative humidity of 10% or below in many valleys, move back into the region under zonal flow by Friday. Hotter temperatures in the 90s area wide return for the weekend. Another upper-level trough skirts the area to the north Sunday but confidence is a bit low in terms of impacts. Impacts are expected mainly along the ID/NV border including a few showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds and low humidity across central Nevada raising fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Additional mid to upper-level moisture will move into central and northeastern Nevada Tuesday allowing for more widespread convection including isolated dry thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats starting around 20Z. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Warmer than normal temperatures continue thru Wednesday with daytime highs residing in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Low humidity will also be a concern with minimum afternoon RH values residing in the 10% to 15% range. Combined with afternoon breezes Tuesday, and slightly stronger, cold front driven west/southwest winds Wednesday with gusts up to 35 MPH, will produce fire weather conditions near critical. Additionally, a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are forecast across most of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night, with showers and thunderstorms focused across the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Another consideration is fuels and fuel loading. With low elevation fine fuels mostly cured, went ahead and issued a fire weather watch for Wednesday for zones 437 and 424. RH values recover some the latter half of the week along with cooler temperatures, however afternoon winds will remain breezy. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening Humboldt County-Quinn...Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 92/93/90/92