Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
943 FXUS65 KLKN 170924 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 224 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move east along the border with Idaho today. Strong northwest winds will keep a lid on high temperatures with readings in the 60s to low 70s. A very cold night is on tap tonight with subfreezing temperatures expected across much of the region. Look for a warming trend with temperatures rising by late this week to above normal levels back into the 90s. Dry conditions are expected in the long term with no significant wind events expected. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Radar and satellite loops are showing clouds and intermittent light showers over northern Nevada, near the Idaho border. Very little, if any, precipitation has been measured by remote observation platforms. For today, expect the shower activity to skirt across far northern Nevada. Minor instability exists and have continued with isolated to scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds will be breezy to locally windy with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Highs will be much cooler with readings in the 60s to 70s. Look for any residual cloudiness to scatter out during the evening and overnight with the isolated precipitation ending. It will be a cold night with temperatures dipping into the 20s and 30s. As a result, various frost and freeze products have been issued for much of the area. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, temperatures will moderate somewhat for the Tuesday timeframe. A weak impulse will move across southern Idaho and will bring clouds to northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Winds will be much lighter with speeds less than 10 mph. Look for mostly clear and cool conditions for Tuesday night with lows in the 30s and 40s. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday Mild temperatures will persist into Wednesday as a diffuse trough axis remains over the western coastal states. Temperatures will be on the rebound but still below normal starting out in the 30s in most valleys with isolated pockets of frost possible. Highs Wednesday will remain below normal in the 70s and 80s. General south to southwest surface flow with weak west/southwest winds aloft will bring warmer temperatures each day through the weekend, with 90s expected to return as early as Friday. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with probability of showers remaining below 10% Thursday and Friday when a few more clouds are expected across the area. && .AVIATION...VFR will be the primary flight condition thru today and tonight. Winds increase early this morning and are expected to remain elevated thru this afternoon with gusts 25KTS to 30KTS across the region. Haze is also expected and localized areas of blowing dust may be possible this afternoon as well. Blowing dust may impact terminals and briefly lower visibility, with short periods of MVFR conditions possible. Winds ease through the evening, becoming much lighter overnight. Rain showers begin to move into the forecast area later this morning from the north, although activity looks to remain situated across northern Humboldt and Elko Counties. That said, a low probability (10%) for a light rain shower must be acknowledged for northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO, though conditions likely remain dry. && .FIRE WEATHER...Look for a progressive cold front to move into central Nevada by late this morning with gusty northwest winds expected across a broad area of the forecast area. Chances for wind gusts 30 mph and relative humidity above will be highest across northern Nye county but fuels are still drying out and are not critical for this event. Widespread frost is possible beginning tonight across far northern Nevada, reaching into the majority of central and northeastern Nevada where temperatures in some valleys will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s. Warmer conditions with lighter winds are expected beginning tomorrow, warming back up to above normal temperatures in the 90s for most valleys by late this week. && .HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures are expected through Tuesday before beginning to warm again through the middle of next week and the weekend. Cooler than average temperatures are expected, including sub-freezing temperatures in areas of remaining snow pack. This will temporarily slow the melting process resulting in a noticeable decline in flow on smaller water systems. The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain is expected to continue to recede, falling below action stage in the Tuesday timeframe. The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to continue to rise early this this week but remain in action stage. It is forecast to peak near minor flood stage in the Monday night to Tuesday timeframe. Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning in Humboldt County...Northern Elko County. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County... Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County. Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday in Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County... Southwest Elko County...White Pine County. && $$ 86/93/92/86