Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 182223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 PM PST Mon Nov 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Look for a slightly cooler afternoon tomorrow but
temperatures will still be above normal. Showers will begin to
develop tomorrow in the north and will increase over the area
through the night through Thursday. Some valley locations,
especially in central Nevada, could see light snow accumulations
by Thursday. The system will depart by Friday with readings near
normal for this time of year.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Some mid to high
cloudiness is moving across northern Nevada at this time, with
mainly sunny skies in central Nevada. The cloud cover will be on
the increase tonight into tomorrow in advance of a storm system
that will effect the region tomorrow through Thursday. Tonight,
look for quiet weather to continue with overnight lows in the 20s
to 30s, especially in those locations that keep the cloud cover.

For Tuesday, a piece of energy over the Pacific Northwest will be
dropping south and east. There could be some afternoon breezes but
nothing out of the ordinary. Expecting light showers to develop
in northern Nevada during the afternoon as a surface cold front
moves through the area. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s
but will drop with the cold front passage. During the overnight,
look for snow levels to drop after the front. Confidence in snow
levels is low-moderate at best due to model discrepancies. By
Wednesday morning, snow levels north of I-80 will be 4500-5500
feet, around 6000-6500 feet along US Highway 50, and around 7000
feet near Tonopah. Light accumulations are possible along passes
and summits in central Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.

For Wednesday, moisture from the east Pacific is forecast to wrap
into the storm system and push north into central Nevada. Wind
speeds will increase out of the north, with speeds of 10 to 20 mph
with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially in portions of Humboldt,
northern Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties. Snow levels continue
to be around that 6000 foot mark in central Nevada. Snowfall
amounts of about 1 to 4 inches are looking likely across the US
Highway 50 corridor at this time. Afternoon highs will generally
be in the 40s, though some locales may be staying in the 30s.

Wednesday night and Thursday. Upper level system will work its way
east and slightly north across southern California and Nevada
through the overnight into Thursday. A frontogenetic band is
forecast to setup across portions of eastern and central White
Pine county, and could lead to enhanced snowfall in these areas,
though confidence is low on any formation. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s and 30s. Winds are still expected to be breezy during
the Thursday period with some snow showers possible on Thursday in
east-central Nevada. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night night through next Monday. There is
some model discrepancy in the long term period. There is good
confidence that the low pressure system expected to bring
accumulating snow Wednesday and Thursday will be tapering off
Thursday night, the start of the long term forecast period. And
although dry conditions can be interpreted to occur Friday through
Sunday night, there is very poor agreement in the positioning of
a synoptic low feature off the coast. The upper flow pattern
evolution over the LKN CWFA depends on the location of the upper
low center, as we enter into the busy Thanksgiving travel week.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s. Low temperatures
will be in the teens.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at KWMC KBAM KEKO KELY and
KTPH through Tuesday afternoon. However ceilings will be lowering
at KWMC by Tuesday afternoon and showers in the vicinity will be
possible by late Tuesday afternoon at KWMC. Vicinity showers will
be possible at KEKO Tuesday evening.




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