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000
FXUS65 KLKN 281133
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
333 AM PST Thu Jan 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Another wave of accumulating snow is expected for
much of central and northern Nevada as a weather disturbance moves
through the region tonight into Friday. The weekend through
Monday looks much quieter as a ridge will be in place. Another
storm system will arrive Tuesday of next week bringing more winter
weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

A brief break between waves of precipitation will occur today
across much of central and northeastern Nevada. However, a
continual moisture stream into northwest Nevada will allow snow
showers to persist through the day across Humboldt county mainly
above elevations of 5000 feet.

Warmer temperatures in the lower valleys of the Humboldt River
basin west of Elko and in southern Humboldt county could see a
mix of rain and snow initially this afternoon before changing to
snow tonight. The bulk of the snowfall moves into the area tonight
into Friday morning. A cold front and upper-trough will move
through the state Friday bringing in slightly colder temperatures.
Expect diminishing snow showers late Friday morning through
Friday afternoon as the trough moves away from the region. This
should be primarily a higher elevation event especially across
northwest Nye county where a winter storm warning is in effect for
the Humboldt-Toiyabe ranges. The relatively warm temperatures
should limit snow accumulation along I-80 but summits could still
see up to 3 inches. The Rubies will be left out again for
significant snowfall through Friday with only 3 to 5 inches
expected. Confidence for appreciable snow later this afternoon
across I-80 is not that great, especially with the expected
relatively warm temperatures in the 40s this afternoon. Gusty
winds along and south of US-50 are expected today with gusts
around 40 mph from the south resulting in some areas of blowing
snow.

Drier conditions settle into the state late Friday and Saturday
as ridging builds back over the region. Clearing skies post-
frontal passage and snow cover will result in colder overnight
lows Friday night dropping into the single digits in some central
Nevada valleys. Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s with
temperatures today a few degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...

A brief quiet period will extend through Sunday as a weak
progressive upper ridge pushes east across Nevada. But this short
reprieve from the active pattern affecting the Great Basin region
will come to an end by Monday morning as another wave pushes into
the western Nevada and brings another period of snow and wind to
northern Nevada through mid-week. Widespread snow showers will
impact the region starting Monday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday. By Tuesday night into Wednesday snow showers will begin
to gradually diminish across eastern Nevada as more intense
snow showers continue over higher mountain elevation areas of
Elko and White Pine counties. But timing remains an issue since
EPS and GEFS ensemble model guidance differ on the trajectory of
the incoming low and accompanying frontal boundary. GEFS wants to
transit faster and stronger into the region while the EPS shows
some hesitation. Therefore QPF and snowfall totals over the region
remain adrift and at the mercy of an uncertain steering
flow through the period. But most valleys areas look to receive
anywhere from a trace to a couple of inches of new snow with
mountains in Elko County receiving 8-12 inches of snow from Monday
evening through Wednesday evening.

Temperatures should be in the 30s and 40s for highs through
Monday, cooler air makes its way into the region and highs Tuesday
and Wednesday should be in the 20s and 30s. Lows should generally
be in the teens and twenties with colder single digit spots
residing in the sheltered valleys. The potential for more wide
spread colder, single digit temperatures continue Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Another round of winter weather is expected today into
Friday across much of the state. Snow will affect all TAF sites at
times over the next 24 hours except KELY resulting in reduced VIS
and lowered ceilings. Gusty winds continue through through around
06Z tonight, with highest winds expected at KELY and KTPH.
Overall, the active weather pattern will continue through Friday
along with continued aviation impacts.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Friday for Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-
Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County-White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Humboldt
County.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Friday for Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

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