Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 092244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 PM PST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather has returned to the forecast area, but
showers return beginning Saturday morning. Snow showers spread from
West to East through the day and evening with the bulk of snowfall
continuing through Sunday night. However, lingering snow showers in
portions of eastern and northern Nevada are possible through Monday
night. Overall, we have an active synoptic pattern through at least
the beginning of the new week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday afternoon

Dry weather has returned to the CWA as the back end of a ridge is
still moving through the region. This won`t last though as the
next system begins to push into Humboldt county early tomorrow
morning. There is a chance for a couple of fairly light snow
showers in Humboldt county before the sun comes up, but snow
levels rise during the morning before afternoon highs reach the
40s and possibly the 50 degree mark in warmest locations of
Humboldt. With showers likely in the afternoon, this leads to
valley rain and mountain snow.

Elsewhere, afternoon highs hit the upper 30s to upper 40s with snow
moving in as we head into the evening.

.LONG TERM...Saturday evening through next Friday

A major winter storm will impact the silver state Saturday
evening through Sunday. This will bring snow across the whole
state with the heaviest snowfall along the cold front which will
transit from NW to SE. This will see the snow start in Humboldt
county Saturday afternoon then slowly spread SE and reaching
White Pine county just before midnight. Some uncertainty remains
for the snow ratios in northern NV with the passage of this
system as slightly warmer air is brought into the area by
southerly winds. The warmer temperatures would lower the snow
ratio tempering the snow amount downward which is currently
reflected in the snow amount forecast. If this doesn`t occur then
it opens the door for higher snow amounts mainly in Humboldt
county valleys. Current snow accumulation forecast are most
pronounced in central NV where the valleys can see 3 to 6 inches
and the mountains, including the Rubies, of 1 to 2 feet. In
northern NV the amounts will be a lesser with valley accumulations
of 1 to 5 inches and the mountains seeing 6 inches to a foot.
Winds will be gusty with the passage of this system with gusts up
to 40 mph in central NV in the 20s mph for northern NV. This will
cause blowing snow which will further worsen conditions. The
system has dynamics favorable to produce convective snow squalls.
If these form they can lead to brief heavy snowfall with drastic
reductions to visibilities that could be as bad as white out
conditions. A Winter Storm Warning is effect for central NV and a
Winter Weather Advisory in northern NV for the expected winter
conditions. Travel conditions during this time will be hazardous
to impossible for all traffic with icy roads, low visibilities,
and/or snow squalls. While temperatures will be a little warmer
during the initial passage of the system most of the silver state
will remain near freezing for a high. After the storms passage
temperatures will drop off again with highs well below freezing.

Monday to Tuesday morning will see the storm slowly leave the
region but still bring some wrap around moisture into northern NV.
This will see the snowfall dwindle everywhere but northern NV. For
northern NV several inches may still fall in the valleys while
the mountain can see upwards of half a foot. For the rest of the
silver state a dusting of less than an inch will be most likely.
By late Monday the system will have moved sufficiently eastward
that the wrap around moisture ceases leaving only remnant snow
flurries with almost no accumulation. These flurries will cease
by Tuesday morning as the moisture is exhausted.

After Tuesday morning there is ever increasing uncertainty with
the forecast as the evolution of the weather pattern becomes
increasingly hard to discern. Right now it is looking more likely
than not that Tuesday to Friday will be a drier period between
system with no to limited snowfall. The alternative if slightly
less probable solution is that further weak impulses will impact
the region bringing a few more rounds of at least light snowfall.
So while the forecast does favor dry do not be surprised if some
snowfall does indeed intrude into the silver state next week. What
is likely no matter the snow forecast is the cold temperatures.
Highs will likely stay in the 20s with lows in the single digits
to as low as the negative teens.


.AVIATION...A brief window of VFR conditions is now occurring at
all terminals. This window will quickly close with the arrival of
the cold front from the ongoing winter storm on Saturday.
Condtions will deteriorate rapidly starting at KWMC Saturday
afternoon with all other terminals doing so Saturday evening. IFR
to VLIFR conditions with low ceiling and visibility are expected
at all terminals with the passage of the cold front. Snow
accumulations will occur at all terminals with KELY seeing the
greatest impact. Windy conditions will cause are of blowing snow
further worsening conditions. Wind gusts will likely be in the 30s
kt range for central NV. Icing and turbulence can be expected
across the silver state with the passage of this system. Mountain
obscuration will occur across the state with the whole range from
valley base to peak being obscured by clouds and snow. These
conditions will make for hazardous to dangerous flying conditions
even to IFR rated pilots.


Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday
for Humboldt County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday
for Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-South Central Elko County-Southwest Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains
and East Humboldt Range-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 10 PM PST Sunday for
White Pine County.



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