Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 082201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 PM PST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific system is moving into the region today and
will impact the area for the next several days. This is currently
causing gusty winds across NV that is kicking up a lot of blowing
dust. Shower activity will pick up tomorrow as some moisture
arrives into the silver state. The main moisture arrives on
Wednesday leading to further shower activity Wednesday into
Thursday. Dry conditions should then return to the region late in
the week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Unsettled weather has returned to the silver state today as a
Pacific system impacts western CONUS for the next several days.
The main low pressure center is moving southward just off the
west coast through early Wednesday then onshore late Wednesday.
This trajectory keeps a majority of this system`s moisture out of
the silver state for today and Tuesday. Currently a small portion
of jet energy that separated from the main system is spinning up a
wave feature and an associated cold front. This weak cold front
is starting to pass over NV today and into Tuesday. Wednesday
will see the main system begin to impact NV as it begins to lazily
move onshore.

The split off wave system is producing gusty winds across the
region that is causing blowing dust across NV. This dust will lead
to reduced visibilities, possibly even heavily so in localized
areas near dust sources. This small split off wave has not taken
much moisture from the main system so showers are looking to be on
the isolated and lighter side today. These showers are mainly rain
in the low level but as cooler air arrives they will begin to
transition to snow late today and overnight. The heaviest area of
precipitation with this front still looks to be mainly in White
Pine county on Tuesday when the cold front ends up stalling thus
allowing more time for precipitation accumulation. Even then the
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side and has
continued to trend downward. Winds will also be lighter on Tuesday
as the gradient weakens. Temperatures will drop with the passage
of this system with highs in the 50s for today and in the 40s for
Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s for Tuesday morning
except for those pesky cold spots where teens will reign.

Wednesday will see the main system impact NV as it moves just off
the coast of California then eventually inland later in the day.
This will spread moisture from south to north into NV. This
moisture will interact with the previous cold front boundary
causing it to move north again as a warm boundary. This will
cause showers across central NV and even as far as northern NV.
The moisture is not that high but is increasing from previous
forecasts. This will still cause the showers to be on the lighter
side but with more accumulation of precipitation possible. Winds
will on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, gusty but not
strong. Temperatures are expected to remain cool with highs being
in the 40s for Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Next Monday

Overall, a wet and cool period to begin with before a drying and
warming trend through Saturday...then cooling off and maybe wet by
next Monday.

Thursday through Friday...The anomalously deep upper level low
over south central CA or southern NV provides another very good
opportunity for snow showers Thursday, especially across the
Schell, Snake, Goshute, and the Ruby Mtns, where several inches
are possible. There are still signs of weak FGEN across the area,
probably indicating the remains of an occluded boundary. Where
this ends up, and evolves on Thursday, will be the focus of the
more intense shower activity. As for impacts, some roads issues
Thursday mornings , otherwise brief road impacts during the more
intense showers as road temperatures climb well above freezing
during day. Another re-freeze is possible Thursday night into
Friday. By Friday, 500mb ridge builds into the area as the upper
level shift further eastward, ending the precip threat for the
area, beside a isolated one in White Pine County. As for
temperatures, below average on Thursday due to cloud cover and
showers (30s and 40s), rising to near average on Friday under more
sunshine (40s and 50s).

Saturday through Next Monday...500mb ridge axis passes through
Saturday, providing the warmest day for majority of the area (50s
and 60s) as another frontal system and associated 500mb trof
impact the Pacific NW coast late Saturday. Surface winds pick up
Saturday, increasing even more on Sunday as a cold front impacts
the area late in the day. Maybe advisory level winds depending the
timing of the front and placement of the jet. Now, potential
exist for the front to stall out or slowly sag south over the area
by next Monday as the main upper level digs south from Pacific
NW. How far south this deep 500mb low goes is yet to be
determine. What is know at this point, Monday looks unsettled and
cooler (40s to low 50s), especially for areas north of I-80. Windy
conditions continue as well on Monday.


.AVIATION...Gusty winds should subside late this evening. These
strong winds are kicking up some dust so vertical visibility
maybe reduce to suspended dust particles. As for clouds, expect a
decrease in cloud this evening except for KELY. By tomorrow,
expect a better chance of precipitation and MVFR Cigs at KELY as
the front stalls out just to the south. The remainder of the sites
remain VFR with lighter winds.




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