Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
866 FXUS65 KLKN 070728 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1228 AM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable throughout Eastern Nevada Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values each afternoon today through Monday. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night A ridge of high pressure will extend northward over Eastern Nevada today. A trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern California tonight. This trough of low pressure will progress eastward through Northern Nevada Sunday. Zonal flow aloft will prevail Sunday night. High temperatures this afternoon will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon will be around five degrees above seasonal values. An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected in portions of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. Thunderstorm probabilities this afternoon into this evening will vary from 10 to 15 percent in Southern Lander, Southern Eureka, Northern Nye, and White Pine Counties. An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated throughout Eastern Nevada Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A few of these thunderstorms may be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Thunderstorm probabilities Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening will vary from 20 to 30 percent in White Pine County to 10 to 20 percent in Southern Elko, Southern Eureka, and Northern Nye Counties. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Mostly quite and dry weather expected across the region starting Monday. The exception will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms confined mainly east-central NV during the afternoon and evening. By Tuesday, a tightening surface pressure gradient ahead a deep trough of low pressure and cold front will bring breezy to windy conditions across portions of central and north-central Nevada. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system will be mainly in the northern portions of the state Wednesday and Thursday. Colder air aloft will lower snow levels between 8500 and 9500 feet Wednesday. Highs midweek will be in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 30s. Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this weekend, however smoke from regional wildfires will keep skies hazy at times. Increasing mid and high level clouds this morning with thunderstorms developing across west-central NV (including KTPH) late this morning, with storms expanding across much of central NV (including KELY) and portions of northern NV this afternoon. At this time not expecting any TS at the northern NV terminals. Southwesterly winds will gust 15 to 20kts this afternoon, though stronger gusts of 35 to 45kts are possible in any thunderstorm outflows. Storms diminish this evening. Best chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening will be over eastern portions of NV, including KEKO and KELY. && .FIRE WEATHER... An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected in parts of Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Monday. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts as high as 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated throughout Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 9 percent. Critical fire weather conditions are possible throughout Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening due to southwest to west wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87/90/90/87