722
FXUS65 KLKN 232149
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
249 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with warmer than normal temperatures persist thru
Tuesday with the typical afternoon breezes also present.
Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.

Southwesterly flow remains poised over the forecast region
tonight and tomorrow as broad high pressure resides over the four
corners region while low pressure is situated over the Gulf of
Alaska. Any virga or weak dry thunderstorms present over southeast
White Pine County this afternoon will dissipate this evening. Sky
cover and winds will also diminish across the forecast region
with clear skies and light to calm winds present tonight.

Similar weather is expected Monday with cumulus buildups, virga,
and a weak dry thunderstorm or two possible over the higher
elevations of southeast White Pine County. Latest numerical
guidance continues to advertise increased moisture and modest
instability. Based on this, virga and dry thunderstorms have been
introduced into the forecast for Monday afternoon over these
higher elevation areas. However, the greatest opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms will be to the east and southeast in
Utah with the boundary of the more ideal PWATs and instability
residing southwest to northeast, barely clipping the southeast
corner of White Pine County. There is relatively low confidence
for dry thunderstorms, though there is enough signal in the
guidance to warrant the addition of such into the forecast.
Otherwise dry weather expected elsewhere under mostly sunny skies
with the typical afternoon breezes present, gusting 20 to 25 mph.
Conditions again become benign for Monday night.

There is a Heat Advisory in effect (thru Wednesday evening) for
southeast Elko county including Wendover for daytime high
temperatures in the upper 90s, much warmer than normal, and
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s which will limit relief from
the hot daytime conditions. Temperatures elsewhere will also be
warm with overnight lows tonight residing in the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Daytime highs Monday will be in the upper 80s to upper
90s with overnight lows again in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday

The Silver State continues to remain between two major upper
level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main
upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian
Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will
help drive the occasional front into northern Nevada during the
week but not really affecting temperatures. The second feature is
a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander
between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The
surface component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow
that will continue to drift north over the four corners. This
moisture will very slow work westward during the week, helping
enhance the mid level moisture across Nevada. For Tuesday this
flow will first help develop some convective buildups and perhaps
occasional virga with an occasional lightning strike across
central NV. By Wednesday two key changes help focus the mid level
moisture the upper ridge will shift west help guide the moist flow
into NV, and second, moisture will be concentrated by a weak
shortwave trough transiting the southwesterly flow. This shortwave
will push a boundary into central NV allowing for a 20% to 30%
chance for a mix of isolated to scattered dry and wet
thunderstorms across mainly eastern NV Wednesday evening. Models
have become a bit more bullish on precipitation, favoring more wet
storm modes. But have also been quicker with the frontal passage
which now may any measurable precipitation east of the Rubies, and
keep all but far southern White Pine county dry for Thursday. By
Friday the trough and the ridge move east with the trough and
front pushing the mid level moisture out of the area again,
leaving quiet conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will begin the week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about
10+ degrees above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across
northern Nevada with the passage of a front Friday into the upper
70s to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs
remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s as this front stalls just
north of the US-50 corridor. Highs across the north will recover
quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as the
upper ridge shifts slightly westward. Overnight lows will also
start above normal in the low 50s to 60s, a brief cool down into
the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday across the north before returning to
the low 50s to low 60s for the weekend. Winds for the extended
will be generally out of the west to WSW for the week at 5 MPH to
15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH. Winds will pick up
across the north Thursday and Friday as the front moves through,
with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Monday. Westerly to SW flow aloft will drive surface
winds out of the W to WSW at 10KT to 20KT with a few gusts up to
30KT possible this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue across the region
with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s and
minimum afternoon RH values less than 15% Monday and Tuesday.
Generally southwesterly afternoon breezes will also continue
Monday and Tuesday with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Stronger westerly
winds mid week in response to an upper trof and surface front
moving across the region. Gusts 30 to 35 mph should be expected
for for most by Thursday. Numerical guidance indicates weak
instability and modest PWATs pushing into portions of east-central
NV and based on this, virga and dry thunderstorms have now been
introduced into the forecast for Monday afternoon over higher
elevation areas of southeast zone 425, including the potential for
a few lightning strikes over or near Great Basin National Park.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms,
continue to look increasingly possible on Tuesday and Wednesday
across most zones across the forecast region with areal coverage
of thunderstorms diminishing Thursday. Given the expected increase
in PWATs, afternoon minimum RH values will reside greater than
15% thru mid week as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal today and into
next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off
higher terrain are expected over the next few days, but not
expecting any new flooding as the snow pack is greatly diminished.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from spring snow
melt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

92/98/98/92/98