Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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632 FXUS63 KLMK 121724 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 124 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures expected from Sunday and into next week. Rain chances may pick up early next week as southerly flow draws moisture northward from the Gulf. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Quiet weather continues across the region this morning, with latest visible satellite imagery showing little more than thin high clouds across southern KY. Ample sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm steadily from the upper 40s and 50s this morning into the low-to-mid 70s at this hour. High pressure continues to linger across the Ohio Valley, with winds remaining light and variable. The forecast remains on track at this time, with temperatures expected to warm into the low-to-mid 80s under mostly sunny skies this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 We will remain mostly sunny with just some high clouds over the region to start the day associated with a weak system over east TX and a weak upper trough passing through the Great Lakes during the early morning hours. Sfc high pressure will remain present over the Ohio Valley with the center continuing to build eastward.This will help to bring a weak return southerly flow as mid-level heights and thickness beginning to increase over the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more locations getting into the low/mid 80s. Dew points will also be a bit warmer but still fairly comfortable in the mid 50s. This will also translate into mild overnight under clear skies and lows in the mid/upper 50s and low 60s in urban areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Thursday through Saturday Night... At the start of the period, we`ll see a trough axis moving through the Great Lakes with another trough axis off the SE coast. The trough axis coming through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front toward the region on late Thursday and into Friday. The front will weaken as it crosses the region on Friday, but enough convergence along the front should produce at least isolated-scattered convection across the region. Overall highest chances of precip on Friday looks to be across our eastern/northeastern sections. A few of those storms could be strong with gusty winds/lightning and marginal hail being a threat. Heights will then rapidly build as we get into Saturday with temperatures expected to moderate rather quickly. Highs on Thursday will likely top out in the mid-upper 80s with perhaps the urban heat islands hitting 90. Overnight lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60s. Highs Friday will be similar to Thursday with most spots in the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into the lower 60s across southern IN and the northern half of Kentucky. Southern KY may stay mild with readings in the upper 60s. Highs Saturday will be slightly cooler with mainly upper 80s in most locations, a few spots in southern KY may get close to 90. Sunday through Tuesday... By Sunday, upper ridge axis will be over the region with mostly sunny skies and increasingly hot conditions. Temperature guidance here has a bit more spread on Sunday with the GFS going with upper 80s and lower 90s while the Euro has temps in the mid-upper 90s. I`m not overly confident in that temperatures will soar as high as the Euro suggests. Last summer, the Euro exhibited a warm bias in the extended. In addition, we`re quite green across the area given the rainfall from mid-late May, but we will be drying out a bit this week. For now, will cap temps in the lower 90s for highs. Overnight lows Sunday night will be quite mild with lower 70s expected. Going into Monday/Tuesday of next week, southerly flow will transport decent moisture into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, so dewpoints will increase and we`ll be quite humid. Model solutions show quite the spread when it comes to potential rainfall. The Euro is quite dry and keeps temperatures in the mid-upper 90s. On the other hand, the GFS/GEFS and Canadian models are a bit more bullish on diurnally driven convection breaking out within the southerly/southwest flow pattern. This results in cooler temp forecasts from those two models. Will use a blend of the models here and keep temps mainly in the lower 90s for Mon/Tue along with a 20-30% PoP in the afternoons. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 High pressure over the region today will allow for continued VFR conditions and light and variable winds. While HNB briefly experienced MVFR visibilities this morning, expected temperatures Thursday morning stay above crossover values, so the probability of any visibility reductions at HNB/BWG/RGA is low, but not zero. An area of lower pressure along a front will remain well north of the region through the current forecast period, however, the approach of the front should help to make winds more consistent out of the S/SW for the day on Thursday, with speeds remaining below 10 kt. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CSG