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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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357 FXUS66 KLOX 242109 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 209 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...24/209 PM. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the interior through this evening. A gradual cool down is expected through midweek with temperatures potentially rebound into the weekend. Low clouds and fog will likely redevelop across coastal areas by midweek. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/209 PM. Excessive heat products with moderate to high heat impacts continue through this evening for portions of the interior, except through Tuesday evening for the Antelope Valley. We have high confidence that cooling trends initiated today across the interior will continue through Wednesday, decreasing heat impact to much lower levels than weve experienced now for many areas for at least several days. As such, we do not anticipate extending any of the heat products. The moisture associated with the mid cloud deck continues to support a 5-15 percent chance (highest across the interior Mountains and deserts) of a thunderstorm across the region today with afternoon cumulus and a shower or two already showing up along the high terrain. Dangerous cloud- to- ground lightning and damaging wind would be the main concerns should a stronger thunderstorm or two form with climatologically favored areas for this being the eastern San Gabriel mountains into the Antelope Valley and Ventura mountains west to the Santa Barbara mountains (excluding the Santa Ynez Range). Generally weak flow aloft would likely support slow storm movement towards the north or northeast around 10 mph with anchoring or back building along the high terrain possible. Any stalled thunderstorms may also produce localized flash flooding. Generally light onshore winds today will likely become stronger with a west to northwest orientation Wednesday and Thursday, potentially approaching advisory levels for southwest Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor. Low confidence in low cloud and fog forecast as the marine layer may struggle to reform as mid level moisture may stick around until Tuesday or so. Sufficient moisture sticks around until at least Tuesday afternoon to warrant a 5-10 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southwest California and the adjacent waters. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/208 PM. Low confidence in the extended period. There is now a 60-70 percent chance that weak troughing will remain in place through the weekend with building heat early next week. That does leave a 20-30 percent chance that heat builds as early as this weekend. If the higher heat scenario plays out, there may be a monsoon push into at least Los Angeles County early next week. Breezy west to northwest winds will continue, peaking each afternoon and evening, potentially nearing advisory levels for southwest Santa Barbara County at times. && .AVIATION...24/1646Z. At 16Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 ft and 24 degrees Celsius. There is a chance of -TSRA today: 20% chance at KSBP 16-19Z, KPRB 17-22Z, KWJF KPMD 20-02Z...10% chance KSBP KPRB 00-04Z. All other sites have a low (5%) but non zero chance. Any thunderstorm will likely produce brief gusty winds and little if any rain. There is a chance of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight into Tuesday: 40% chance at KSMX, 20% chance at KSBP KSBA, 10% chance at KOXR KSMO KLAX KLGB. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions into Tuesday. KLAX...There is a 10% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions after 08Z tonight. There is a 5% chance of -TSRA through early Tuesday, with higher chances over the nearby mountains and deserts. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions. High confidence that any southeast winds will remain under 8 knots. KBUR...There is a 5% chance of -TSRA through early Tuesday, with higher chances over the nearby mountains and deserts. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions. && .MARINE...24/119 PM. The threat of isolated thunderstorms will remain through Tuesday as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto linger over the region. With dry air near the surface, any storm can product brief but very gusty winds. Dense fog with visibilities under one mile will remain a concern, and while the coverage and shrunk a lot, expect some random patches tonight into Tuesday. There is a 30 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts tonight and Tuesday Night for the Outer Waters (offshore waters of the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island). Otherwise, high confidence in weaker than usual winds for this time of the year. Northwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. High confidence in SCA level winds and steep seas for the Outer Waters, with a 20 percent chance of reaching low-end Gale Force. 50 percent chance for SCA winds and seas for the nearshore Central Coast waters, and a 20 percent chance for the western Santa Barbara Channel. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-344-345-348-353-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning now in effect until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Kittell MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox