409
FXUS64 KLUB 061918
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
218 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Not much of a change to the short term forecast this afternoon as
the upper level ridge continues to shift slightly eastward into the
Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This will continue to influence
relatively quiet and warm conditions as thickness values rise across
the South Plains region. As of 1:30 PM CDT the weak surface front is
currently positioned over the northern Texas Panhandle. South of the
front, southeast surface winds will continue to pump moisture into
the region from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. This increased
moisture in addition to the above normal temperatures in the upper
90s and triple digits will allow for a very buoyant environment and
increased chances for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening. Latest CAMs suggest initial convective development along
and south of the front this afternoon just north of the far southern
Texas Panhandle. Storms will then begin to track southward into the
far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the northern South
Plains and Rolling Plains through the evening. Widespread severe is
not expected; however, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may
be possible given MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg to 3000 J/kg, steep
low-level lapse rates, and deep effective bulk shear around 35 to 40
knots. Main threats with thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph as depicted by inverted-v profile soundings and hail up
to quarter size. Into the late evening hours, convective outflow
boundaries in addition to the LLJ may allow for thunderstorms to
grow upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System while tracking
further south into the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Therefore, NBM PoPs were increased through the late evening into
portions of the early morning hours to account for this.
Thunderstorms should clear the FA just after midnight with overnight
lows slightly warmer than previous in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

As we head into the end of the work week, expect the above seasonal
normal temperatures to continue once again as the upper level ridge
sets up over the region. This in addition to lee surface troughing
influencing breezy southwest winds and clear skies will lead to
another day of temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

We are transitioning into a typical summer like pattern for the long
term forecast. An upper level ridge will continue to shift east into
central Texas on Friday leading to a plume of monsoon moisture
advecting northward around the ridge in eastern New Mexico into the
Texas Panhandle. Isolated convection is mostly expected to remain in
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle in close proximity to a surface
pressure trough. Very hot temperatures and minimal flow through the
atmosphere will lead to pulse type convection. The upper ridge will
move farther east on Saturday and break down allowing the mid level
monsoon moisture to move more overhead. Otherwise, conditions will
be fairly similar to Friday with pulse type convection. Better
chances for convection will manifest late in the weekend into the
early part of next week.

An upper level ridge will amplify from the Intermountain West
through the southern Rockies setting up northwest flow convection on
Sunday and Monday evenings. The first round will occur on Sunday as
a short wave moves around the upper ridge out onto the Plains. On
Sunday morning, a cold front will move through the area shifting low
level winds to easterly upslope flow which is more favorable for
northwest flow convection. Convection will likely start on the
higher terrain of eastern New Mexico through the Raton Mesa and move
southeast ward towards West Texas. The frontal boundary itself may
stall out and provide an additional focus for convection late on
Sunday. An upper level low moving onshore from Baja California this
weekend will make its way around the ridge by Monday evening again
enhancing the chances for northwest flow convection. The upper level
ridge will further build on Tuesday and begin to shift east placing
West Texas closer to the ridge axis and thus less chances for
northwest flow convection. Additionally, the cold front on Sunday
will lower temperatures back closer to seasonal averages on Sunday
and well into the 80s on Monday. However, with the ridge moving back
overhead by mid-week, temperatures will again increase above
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of KCDS and
KPVW this afternoon. Storms may track southward and reach as far
south as KLBB by late this evening before dissipating around
midnight. Main threats with storms will be gusty and erratic
winds, sub-severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may lead
to reduced visibility. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12