516
FXUS64 KLUB 060537
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Upper air analysis this afternoon depicts an amplifying Rex Block
over the western U.S. interior and southward into the northeastern
waters of the Pacific Ocean where a barotropic low exists offshore
Baja California. The more-progressive flow is displaced to the east
of the CWA as a basal trough exits eastern Texas, where large-scale
subsidence continues to advect overhead in the mid-levels along the
eastern periphery of the mid/upper-level ridge to the west. At the
surface, a weak anticyclone was located in northwestern Oklahoma,
which has resulted in east-southeasterly flow area-wide this
afternoon with temperatures currently in the middle 80s. Upslope
flow associated with the east-southeasterly winds, in addition to a
mild subsidence layer associated with a weak trough at 700 mb, will
continue to keep temperatures at bay with the previous forecasts of
the middle 90s remaining intact. Mid/upper-level ridging will slowly
meander eastward throughout the overnight hours with return flow
becoming established as the surface anticyclone rotates eastward as
well, and morning lows will hover in the middle-upper 60s beneath a
few low clouds before the low-level jet veers towards sunrise.

A southward-moving cold front spawned from a negatively-tilted
trough digging into Ontario is forecast to slow in forward-speed as
it moves through the western High Plains and into the increasingly
barotropic airmass over the CWA. Intense dry-bulbing will occur with
temperatures rising to or breaching 100 degrees across most of the
CWA, with boundary-layer heights ascending into the mid-levels. As
the cold front becomes quasi-stationary in the vicinity of the
extreme southern TX PH, at least widely-scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop by mid-afternoon as low-level convergence from
the slightly backed flow to the south of the front maximizes
amongst no MLCINH. Organized thunderstorms are not expected due to
small shear vectors; however, tall, skinny CAPE profiles yielding
near 1,000 J/kg for most-unstable parcels (which is the favored
trajectory given the intense heating galvanizing Inverted-V
profiles within the boundary-layer amidst no MLCINH), will result
in the development of multi-cellular clusters near 21-22Z. High
LCLs and water-loading will lead to the potential for a few
severe-caliber wind gusts beneath the deepest cores, in addition
to locally heavy rainfall as PWATs exceed 1.00" along the stalled
front. Outflow may temporarily shift the position of the front,
but it is expected to remain stalled near the northern zones
heading into tomorrow night.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Very warm temperatures will continue through at least the early part
of the weekend with an upper level ridge shifting eastward overhead.
Temperatures will still be on the order of 10-15 degrees above
seasonal averages. The presence of the upper ridge will mostly
suppress convection but some chances exist for the area from
Saturday onward. As the center of the upper ridge slowly approaches
the area, monsoonal-like moisture will stream northward out of
northern Mexico into eastern New Mexico. This would likely be the
source of precipitation as these storms drift eastward. Although
atmospheric mixing will be very deep on Friday and Saturday, we will
be capped in the mixed layer likely keeping convective chances
confined to the evening hours. A number of short wave troughs will
move over top of the ridge on Friday and Saturday but convection
looks to stay to the north of the area reaching as far south as the
Texas Panhandle. The weather pattern will change a bit late in the
weekend through early next week. The upper level ridge will briefly
amplify and move back west allowing mid and upper level winds to
veer more to the northwest. At the same time, an upper level low
will be moving onshore from Baja California into the southwestern
US. Several additional short waves may move southeastward through
the ridge generating northwest flow storms Sunday and Monday
evenings. The aforementioned low moving onshore is expected to phase
in with the larger scale flow as the ridge moves east in response to
a deep trough moving across the Canadian prairies. An additional
evening of northwest flow storms will be possible on Tuesday.
Northwest flow storms will likely be enhanced by a cold front moving
through on Sunday leading to upslope flow into the higher terrain of
New Mexico. Furthermore, the front will lower temperatures back
closer to seasonal averages or even lower than averages early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR with chances for TS by early evening at CDS and PVW. This
activity may drift south to LBB toward sunset, although most
indications are for TS to be dissipating by this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93