411
FXUS64 KLZK 031755
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Guidance continues to agree that the mid level flow will be largely
quasi-zonal until late in the period and that a series of short wave
troughs/mesoscale features will pass through or near the forecast
area. This is pretty much all they agree on as CAMS guidance remains
inconsistent in exactly where and when these features will move
through and what happens when they do.

MCS that moved through extreme southern Arkansas Sunday evening has
all but dissipated but guidance continues to show another subtle SWT
over the central plains early this morning. Convection forecast to
initiate over eastern OK around daybreak and then spread over the
forecast area as the day progresses. Latest runs of the HRRR have
this convection intensifying as it moves across the state during the
day. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong
wind gusts and expansion of slight risk to cover the entire CWA this
morning seems justified.

Some of the CAMS guidance (in particular the HRRR) have another area
of strong convection moving from the central plains into western and
southern Arkansas Tuesday morning before diving into LA early in the
day. Will hold off on making any wholesale changes concerning this
convection as HRRR seems to be an outlier at this time but overall
pattern does at least support this happening.

Guidance does remain consistent in dropping a much larger trough
into the nations mid section by the end of Tuesday as surface low
pressure moves across the central Manitoba. Surface boundary will be
located over far northwest Arkansas with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing along and preceding said boundary Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The long-term forecast period which includes the timeframe from the
middle of the workweek through the weekend will be a mixed bag of
unsettled and fair weather. Upper lvl northwesterly flow and a
series of SWTs within the flow pattern will approach and move over
Arkansas. An upper ridge will build across the Southwestern region
of the CONUS keeping the stream of northwesterly flow positioned to
traverse over the Natural State throughout the period.

On Wednesday, an approaching cold front will be nearing the state
keeping POP chances elevated across the CWA for Wednesday into
Wednesday Night. The good news is that this feature quickly moves
across the state on Wednesday Night into the early morning hours on
Thursday making way to an overall fair period of weather aided by a
region of sfc high pressure that moves in behind the departing cold
front and remains for Thursday through Friday Night. Compared to the
forecast package issued last night, this is a significant change as
POP chances are nearly nil over this period. However, the POP roller
coaster continues during the long-term forecast period as another
cold front approaches the state from the north on Saturday
increasing the POP chances once again as rain and possibly
thunderstorms chances will be back into the forecast for the
remainder of the weekend.

In regard to temperatures with respect to both low and high
temperatures will be near to slightly above average compared to
climatological normals for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Difficult TAF forecast coming up with several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms moving through the state during the next 24
hours. First wave is currently pushing through the state and will
continue to push east through the early afternoon. Second round is
currently in Oklahoma and will push east through the early evening
hours while the third round will move through the state after 06z.
These several rounds of storms will bring gusty wind conditions
and MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  68  85  72 /  80  80  40  60
Camden AR         87  70  88  71 /  70  60  20  20
Harrison AR       80  66  83  67 /  80  70  30  80
Hot Springs AR    84  69  86  70 /  70  80  20  40
Little Rock   AR  85  71  88  73 /  80  60  30  40
Monticello AR     86  72  89  73 /  80  40  30  10
Mount Ida AR      84  68  85  70 /  80  80  20  50
Mountain Home AR  81  66  84  69 /  80  70  40  70
Newport AR        82  69  85  72 /  70  30  50  60
Pine Bluff AR     86  71  88  72 /  70  40  30  20
Russellville AR   84  69  86  72 /  80  80  30  60
Searcy AR         83  68  86  71 /  80  50  40  50
Stuttgart AR      84  72  86  73 /  70  60  30  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...65