913
FXUS64 KLZK 160733
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
233 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Another mainly calm cool night is ongoing early this Thu
morning...with dry conditions and light/variable winds noted. Temps
had dropped into the 60s for most areas...with just some patchy fog
seen. Scattered convection was noted to the north and west of the
state however...where SHRA/TSRA had formed under an upper level wave
lifting ENE towards SW MO.

The aforementioned upper wave/disturbance will continue shifting
east over SRN MO today...with chances for convection increasing for
NRN sections this morning. Chances will then increase further SE
starting this afternoon as another upper wave moves east...further
south of the morning system. A more significant upper shortwave to
the west will move east towards the state tonight into Fri...with
chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing for most of the area by late
tonight into Fri as a result. Best POPs will be over NRN and SRN
sections for Thu night into Fri...with less coverage expected for
central sections. This will change for Fri afternoon and night as
the main upper shortwave to the west moves into AR by the end of the
short term period. Even so...think coverage will be mainly scattered
in nature for most areas.

The overall threat for seeing SVR Wx looks limited through the short
term period. However...some storms could become strong to SVR each
day...with some damaging winds and large hail possible with the
strongest activity. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen...but
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected.

Temps today will be coolest across NRN sections where rain
chances/cloud cover will be greatest...with highs in the 70s to
around 80 there. Further south...temps will warm into the 80s. For
Fri...temps areawide look to remain in the 70s...though temps may
approach 80 across the SE. Lows each morning will be upper 50s to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An H500 trough and sfc cold front will be moving east of the state
at the start of the period with rain chances tapering off by
Saturday afternoon.

A dry forecast remains in place for the upcoming weekend into early
next week. The heat is expected to build and will make it feel more
like Summer across the state than Spring. Anomalously high H500
heights originating from Mexico will extend northeastward toward the
Great Lakes. This will contribute to well above normal temperatures
for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Highs approaching or
exceeding 90 F appear likely during this timeframe.

Some breakdown in the H500 ridge will be seen by the end of the
period. This will allow a mid-level trough to approach the state by
mid-week along with a cold front. Temperatures are expected to cool
by a few degrees and rain chances will return to the forecast Tue-
Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  64  72  62 /  30  70  90  30
Camden AR         85  65  79  64 /  10  80  50  30
Harrison AR       76  61  71  59 /  60  70  80  20
Hot Springs AR    84  64  78  63 /  20  70  70  30
Little Rock   AR  86  67  78  65 /  20  70  80  30
Monticello AR     85  67  80  65 /  10  80  60  40
Mount Ida AR      83  64  77  61 /  30  70  70  30
Mountain Home AR  78  62  71  60 /  60  70  90  20
Newport AR        84  66  74  63 /  20  70  90  40
Pine Bluff AR     86  66  79  64 /  10  70  70  40
Russellville AR   83  64  75  62 /  40  60  80  30
Searcy AR         84  65  75  62 /  20  70  90  40
Stuttgart AR      86  67  77  65 /  10  70  80  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....67