576
FXUS64 KMAF 310538
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1238 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some severe with all hazards
   in play, are forecast this afternoon and evening for the northern
   Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos

 - Another round of thunderstorms Friday night?

Going to be a busy afternoon, so will keep this somewhat brief.
Latest mesoanalysis and satellite data suggest that the outflow
boundary is along a line from south of Tatum NM east-southeastward
through just northeast of Midland to almost Garden City, TX.
Meanwhile, a dryline extends across southeastern NM from Artesia
south through Carlsbad, then from there south southeastward to
near Pecos and Fort Stockton. Hodographs support splitting storms
this afternoon where convection can realize substantial MLCAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg, steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and
effective shear in the 40-50 knot range. Right-moving daughter
cells, especially if they can latch onto the baroclinic vorticity
within the outflow boundary, will have the potential to produce a
couple of tornadoes just inside the cool side of the boundary
where LCLs and subcloud RHs are higher than on the warm side of
the boundary. Large to giant (> 3" diameter) hail, wind gusts over
70 mph, and very heavy rainfall are likely to occur. With the
left-moving daughter cells, all threats are in play except for
tornadoes. Looking at two areas for CI this afternoon...Pecos
County and also along the outflow boundary across the
northern/northwestern Permian Basin. WoFS paintballs suggestive of
upscale growth into two MCSs, one with messy cell mergers over
the northeastern Basin and the second over Terrell County. Flash
flooding will then be a concern over these areas. Some CAMs are
hinting at redevelopment over the northeastern Basin after
midnight as well...bears watching.

Friday looks to be a down day as cool outflow from the expected
MCSs overspreads the area. Should be a nice day. Friday night
likewise should be quiet, with possibly some showers and
thunderstorms across the northeastern Basin Friday night. NBM
looked good for the short- term and was used with no modification
other than to add T+ in the grids for this afternoon/evening where
there was PoPs. -bc

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Behind a cold front reinforced by mesoscale outflow boundaries,
easterly upslope surface flow will advect in higher levels of
moisture for all of the area on Saturday. PWATs are forecast to
reach levels that are above annual climatological maximum, with
parts of West Texas being included by WPC in risk for excessive
rainfall. In addition to increased moisture behind Friday`s cold
front and the dryline setting up farther to the west, an upper
short wave trough will provide lift for storms. The most
widespread rain chances are forecast Saturday, when a chance of
thunderstorms will be present for much of the area. SPC has
outlined parts of West Texas in a SLGT risk Saturday and MRGL
Sunday. The combination of deep layer shear of 40-60kts over the
southern 2/3rds of the area, anomalously high boundary layer
moisture, and steep lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will be conducive to
a risk of hail and damaging winds in any storms that develop and
become severe on Saturday. While an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out in the most intense and rapidly developing storms, the
higher tornado risk looks to be present farther north over the TX
PH. Despite storm chances over westernmost regions, QPF remains
low over higher terrain. More on this in the Fire Weather
Discussion. Sunday`s storm coverage will be less than Saturday as
the trough moves east of the area, with most forcing for
convection a result of the dryline. Westerly downsloping winds
over higher terrain sharpens the dryline during the afternoon, but
only isolated convection is forecast, mainly in southern parts of
the area over the mountains. Hail and damaging winds are possible
in the strongest storms. Increasing thicknesses following the
departing trough on Sunday will also result in warmer temperatures
than Saturday.

After Sunday, a summer-like Death Ridge pattern, with ridging
building from the eastern Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West
and Rockies, will mark a warming trend that continues into
Wednesday. Cluster analysis consistently shows a quasi-stationary
upper ridge setting up over Mexico by Monday, and LREF model as
well as forecast dew point grids indicate the dryline retreating
west to El Paso after Sunday. While still too early to tell, this
might mark the unofficial start of our monsoon season. With the
dryline this far west, rain is not likely anywhere in the area.
Some rain chances are indicated at the end of the long term for
western parts of the area, but this far out we will need to see a
more consistent signature in models before we conclude rain is
possible next week.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest out of all days in the long
term, near to below average northeast of the Pecos River with
upper 80s over higher elevations and northeastern Permian Basin,
and a few degrees above average in the 90s and above elsewhere,
triple digits near the Rio Grande. Lows Saturday night remain
warmer than average and in the 60s, 70s near the Rio Grande and
over the southeastern Permian Basin. Highs Sunday feature 90s and
above, with triple digits making an appearance not only in the Big
Bend but also in the Reeves County Plains up along the Pecos
River into SE NM. Lows will Sunday night will be similar but
warmer than Saturday night, as surface flow becomes more southerly
and warmer air from the south is transported into the area.
Monday through Wednesday, highs 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
average for early June are expected, with highs mostly in the
triple digits and above, aside from higher elevations, northern
Lea County, and the northern Permian Basin where highs will stay
in the 90s. Lows likewise will continue to be warmer than average,
70s present over much of the southern and eastern Permian Basin,
leeward plains of the Guadalupe into Davis Mountains, and near the
Rio Grande, 60s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday are likely to be the
warmest in the long term, close to 15 degrees above average for
early June. After surface flow again becomes more easterly later
on Wednesday in response to an approaching short wave, highs
Thursday will be slighter "cooler" but remain above average,
similar to readings seen on Sunday. Lows Thursday night will
continue the trend of above average temperatures, with warmest
lows in the 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio Grande, and
coolest lows in the highest elevations of West Texas and the
Guadalupes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. KMAF
currently at MVFR with BKN024 with the passing of a reminant outflow
boundary moving NE to SW, CIGs should lift between 06-07Z.
Elsewhere, quiet weather remains with VFR conditions. Winds
currently out of the SE at all terminals at 7-12 knots. KMAF more
easterly behind the reminant outflow boundary aformentioned above at
10-15 knots with gusts of 25 knots.

Developing TS over the Texas Panhandle will develop into an MCS and
dive S/SE during the overnight hours, with possible impacts at KMAF
by 13Z. Confidence is low on how far west the line of TS will
extend, so mention of VCTS at 13Z for now. With this boundary
associated with the developing MCS, the winds will shift E/NE by
~11Z for KHOB, ~13Z for KMAF/KINK, 14Z for KPEQ/KCNM, and ~15Z for
KFST. Winds will be out of the E/NE at 10-15 knots with gusts up to
25-30 knots. BKN to OVC at 6000-10000 expected.

Skies will clear from the NW to SE during the mid and late morning
timeframe with light winds (7-12 knots) out of E/SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast over westernmost
regions each day, mainly west of the dryline for higher terrain
west of the Pecos, especially Eddy County Plains and the
Guadalupes. Min RH below critical 15% level will coincide with
increased 20ft winds each afternoon west of the dryline, with ERCS
remaining above the 90th percentile. In any storms Saturday
afternoon, fire starts from lightning will be possible as far west
as the Sacramento Foothills due to critically dry fuels and lack
of wetting rains in any storms. However, below average fuel
density will constrain fire risk. Highest risk of fire weather
conditions is indicated for Sunday through Wednesday, with
critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  90  67  93 /  10  20  30  20
Carlsbad                 66  96  66 101 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                   72  95  72  98 /   0  20  20  10
Fort Stockton            70  96  69 100 /   0  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           64  89  65  92 /   0  20  10  10
Hobbs                    63  92  64  95 /  10  30  20  10
Marfa                    57  94  59  97 /   0  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  92  68  94 /  10  20  30  20
Odessa                   69  92  69  95 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                     70  96  69 102 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99