Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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489 FXUS64 KMAF 241943 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VIS SAT shows mostly clear skies, with some cumulus over the Davis Mountains and streaming in from the south-southeast over Terrell County into southeast Permian Basin. Upper ridging will continue to build today, with light winds aside from some higher gusts over the Reeves County plains and Lower Trans Pecos into the eastern Stockton Plateau. Highs will rise above average for late June this afternoon, into the 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and 100s over easternmost Permian Basin, western Permian Basin, Reeves County plains and Stockton Plateau, as well as near the Rio Grande. While warmer than yesterday, Heat Advisory criteria is not expected to be reached today. Isolated storm chances as a result of heating of elevated terrain are possible in the Davis Mountains, otherwise rain chances are near zero everywhere else. Overnight, light southeast winds and widespread dew point temperatures in the 60s and above aside from 50s in higher elevations of W TX and Guadalupes will mean lows not dropping below the 70s for most places, with exception of 60s over higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tuesday continues the warming trend as ridging continues to amplify. Widespread triple digit readings over most of the SE NM plains, Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau and especially the Reeves County plains (where highs could rise above 105+) are anticipated. Highs also rise above 105+ along the Rio Grande, with 90s in higher elevations, over Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, and across southeast Permian Basin. Heat Advisories might need to be issued, but will leave that for the next shift. Increased monsoonal moisture along with heating of elevated terrain for the Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains yield higher rain chances than today for those regions. Given the dry subcloud layer, lightning and gusty, erratic winds will be the biggest threats with any stronger storms that develop. Tuesday night will once again feature a warmer than average night, with lows again mostly falling into the 70s or above. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Wednesday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over New Mexico, resulting in highs ~ 7-9 F above normal. Upslope flow will give the higher terrain a chance of convection during the afternoon and overnight hours. Lightning starts continue to be the only fire weather concern, each afternoon through the extended. Thursday, the ridge begins to flatten, courtesy of a broad trough traversing the US/Canadian border. While the ridge will center over West Texas, it`ll be weaker than Wednesday, and decreased thicknesses will yield highs a degree or so lower than Wednesday`s. Upslope flow will again favor orographic convection over the higher terrain out west. Friday, the ridge shifts to the southeastern CONUS, but not before trying to rally afternoon highs to what they were Thursday, if not a bit warmer. This refocusing of the ridge over the southeastern states will open a window for cooler temperatures and more widespread convection into next week. A general easterly flow will promote convection each day in upslope flow, but the activity will develop father east each afternoon. Attm, best chances look to culminate Sunday, although POPs remain minimal, as the ridge centers just north of the ArklaTex. Thicknesses will be at a nadir for this forecast, resulting in highs right around normal, if not just a degree or so above. All that said, heat advisories may be needed Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR VIS and CIG prevail throughout TAF period. Winds become intermittently gusty this afternoon and increase in speed this evening beginning 23Z at FST and by 03Z-04Z at all terminals. Winds remain gusty until end of the period at MAF, but decrease in speed by 10Z-11Z Tuesday at other terminals in SE NM plains, western Permian Basin, and Reeves County Plains into lower Trans Pecos. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 104 78 103 / 0 10 10 20 Dryden 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 76 101 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 73 96 76 94 / 0 20 20 40 Hobbs 72 101 73 101 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 65 97 68 98 / 10 20 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 105 79 105 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...94